Yesterday's by-election in Meopham North saw UKIP achieve the second place predicted by Survation on Wednesday but by a much higher percentage.
Survation had predicted that the Conservative candidate would secure 52% of the vote and the UKIP candidate, Geoffrey Clark, would come second with 26%. The actual result was 48% for the Conservative candidate and 34% for UKIP.
Meopham is only a village in Kent and the by-election for a council seat but it's important because the Gravesham constituency of which it is a part is known as a bellwether constituency, meaning the voting pattern matches that of the country as a whole - only one result has differed from the national result since the first world war.
It must be stressed that by-elections are not an accurate prophesy of general election results, especially council by-elections. However, they do reflect the overall trend and that trend is an upwards one for UKIP. I think Survation's predictions are probably more reflective of a possible general election result than a council election and that is very encouraging indeed.
Geoffrey Clark must be gutted to have missed victory by such a small number of votes - there were just 186 votes in it - but this is still an excellent result for UKIP. The Tories will have watched this election result closely and they will be getting worried.
wonkotsane is an author at Bloggers4UKIP.
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