Monday, 7 May 2012

Greek election produces no workable majority

With 99.92% of the vote counted, there is no outright winner and things are so close that another election might be necessary to try and find some sort of consensus.

Syriza has gone from fifth to
second in 3 years
New Democracy and Pasok both suffered big losses whilst Syriza almost doubled their vote share and the new Independent Greeks party have taken over 10% of the vote in its maiden election.  The Communists failed to make any significant gains but the hard right Golden Dawn increased their vote from less than 0.3% to almost 7%, gaining 21 seats in the Greek Parliament in the process.

It is unlikely that any party will form a coalition with Golden Dawn so there are effectively 279 seats to play for in any coalition.  Maintaining the current New Democracy/Pasok coalition would produce a coalition with 149 seats - two short of an absolute majority but an effective majority of nine if Golden Dawn are taken out of the equation.  Dimar is ideologically close to Pasok so a three-way ND/Pasok/Dimar coalition is a possibility.

A right wing coalition of New Democracy and Independent Greeks would produce a coalition with 141 seats - ten short of an absolute majority but an effective majority of one without Golden Dawn's seats.  A left wing coalition of Syriza, Pasok, KKE and Dimar would produce a coalition with 138 seats - thirteen short of an absolute and effective majority.

The support of Golden Dawn, with its 21 seats, could be the key to forming any minority coalition.