Tuesday 4 March 2014

Cold War 2

The EU-sponsored coup in Ukraine has taken its inevitable course with a Russian invasion of Crimea.

Russia has had imperialist ambitions since the break-up of the USSR. The CIS was created almost immediately after the USSR broke up and a union of Russia and Belarus was created with the intention of expanding to other former Soviet states. To provide a supply of compliant republics to feed the NewSSR (see what I did there?) Russia changed its policy on breakaway republics - apart from those trying to break away from Russia of course - from ignoring them and letting them sort themselves out to supporting them, including militarily if it suits their agenda.

It is this policy of supporting pro-Russian breakaway states that led it to invade South Ossetia and Abkhazia a few years ago (both of which want to join the NewSSR) and why it has now invaded Crimea. It also helps that the ceding of Crimea to Ukraine during the days of the USSR and the subsequent failure of Russia to reintegrate Crimea immediately after the break-up of the USSR is something that still grates with the Russian people so Putin can expect public support for what he's doing.

The first cold war came about when America's sphere of influence came up against USSR's sphere of influence. The second cold war is just starting and it's the EU expanding into Russia's sphere of influence. It is inevitable and pre-mediated and demonstrates the lengths the EU will go to to expand its empire. And just like in Georgia, the EU will stand impotently on the sidelines telling Russia that they're being naughty whilst doing nothing to help.

There is no doubt that the EU sponsored the coup in Ukraine - we all know it, the Russians know it. Thousands of pro-EU protesters spent weeks in Kiev and someone supplied them with food and made sure their bills were paid while they were waving the ring of stars in the capital.

Crimea will come out of this conflict in the same state as South Ossetia and Abkhazia - recognised by Russia and a handful of the usual suspects as an independent state but officially unofficial. The EU's dream of controlling the gas and oil production in Crimea as well as its strategically important Black Sea port has come to nothing whilst Russia's relations with the west have declined once again. The world is a more dangerous and unpredictable place than it was a few weeks ago and all in the name of Russian and EU imperialism.