Last year UKIP's John Bickley came within 617 votes of beating Labour in the by-election for the neighbouring seat of Heywood & Middleton, narrowly missing the opportunity to deprive Labour of the seat they've held since it was created 1983. It is widely expected that Bickley will be announced as the UKIP candidate for Oldham West & Royton.
Labour increased its vote share in this year's general election by 9.3% but UKIP increased its share by an even more impressive 17.4%. The Conservatives dropped 4.7% and the Lib Dems bombed with a 15.4% decrease in vote share.
This by-election will be a two horse race between Labour and UKIP. This is a working class area that isn't going to choose a Conservative over Labour. UKIP is the only party that can command support from both sides of the political spectrum and challenge Labour's stranglehold over the north of England.
In Oldham West & Royton, if you vote Tory you'll get Labour. Vote UKIP and get UKIP.
wonkotsane is an author at Bloggers4UKIP.
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