The EU Referendum is just a warm up for the 2020 general election. #EURef / #BRExit / #GE2020 / #UKIP

Be prepared - UKIP are now more important to the UK's continued existence than ever - and will be for a few years to come. 

The EU referendum result is likely to be close (although I have a few quid on 70/30 for out) - this will make GE2020 the real show down.

If Leave win, there will be two years of negotiation and GE2020 will be a referendum on the result of those negotiations. I believe the parties will go into the election with very different positions on the negotiation:-

Labour and Lib Dem (what is left of them) will go into GE2020 saying the negotiation has failed but was unnecessary and that #BRExit should be cancelled.

Conservatives will go into GE2020 backing the weak renegotiation they will have managed which will amount to the 'associate EU membership' they wanted all along.

However if Remain win, Lib Lab Con will go in as same old, same old.

But whatever the result of the referendum Leave or Remain, UK Independence Party will go in on a full an immediate exit - content to go with World Trade Organisation terms if needs be.

UKIP cannot declare this as it would be used to exclude them from the two years of negotiations that would follow a Leave vote, and they must at least try to make it real 'brexit' (No EU Fees, No EU Laws, No EU Passports) - however given the comments made by the Conservative (so called) Leave supporters I have no doubt they have no real intention of leaving - just of manoeuvring.

Given a leave vote, GE2020 will be the EU's 'second referendum' - the one they always have when the people give them the 'wrong' answer.

Be prepared - UKIP are now more important to the UK's continued existence than ever - and will be for a few years to come.

[First published at http://free-english-people.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/the-eu-referendum-is-just-warm-up-for.html]