An Opinium poll for the Observer has UKIP on a new high (for Opinium) of 21% with the Lib Dems on their lowest ever rating of 6%.David Cameron's rating is down again to 28% while Ed Miliband's rating is just 22% and Nick Clegg's a lowly 12%.
We incorrectly attributed this poll to Survation last night. Let that be a lesson to you all on the dangers of late night blogging!
wonkotsane is an author at Bloggers4UKIP.
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thomasruss4 2p · 613 weeks ago
Nothing from any source so far indicates that 34% could or should happen - it would probably take a chain of media reported sex scandals and bribery charges for a swing above 27% (by May 2015, not now) to even start to come about.
One other possibility is that Labour could throw the election away, by actually becoming Tory-lite and adopting Osborne's infantile economics. Everywhere but in London and Berlin, the policy of austerity has lost all credibility, even for Eurozone countries. The IMF's Christine Lagarde screams at Europe's central bankers to "do their homework" and return to growth. The US treasury pleads that "strengthening European demand is the most important immediate imperative". Rulers from Italy and Spain to France and the Netherlands are abandoning austerity and girding themselves to counter-cyclical spending. Miliband and Balls will try to convince the right wing UK press that they are all for austerity, but this could easily be twisted into headlines of "Reducing State Pension" Labour policy - a LETHAL label.
1) A move past 27% might trigger UKIP into a serious rethink of its policies, a great many of which are basket case bonkers - such as No Climate Change, Increase Defence Spend by 40%, Scrap Human Rights Act, Franchise NHS. The BIG PROBLEM is - how many of these lunatic ideas are the base 26% reliant upon ? Between June 2013 and Feb 2015 there probably isn't time to find out if a net gain arises from ditching any or all of them, so the safest thing to do is leave them alone..
2) To be credible as a government requires sufficient nationally well known personalities to fill a Cabinet - at least 50. As of mid 2013 ONLY Farage is known. One source would be popular politicians defecting to UKIP (all six of them) - or loads of non politicians becoming candidates, (preferably X Factor rejects). If new local councillors are selected very early, as Westminster 2015 candidates, they may well swing a few seats if they become famous in their constituency and are picked up by regional, then national, media.
3) Much of UKIP's image is based around "We are not racists" ... yet plainly a great many of their supporters and candidates are racists. To many of the electorate, such a slogan elicits the thought "Well if you are not racists, why say so?". The well established fact that politicians lie most of the time, makes many think that UKIP are lying about racism. Farage boasted on The Andrew Marr Show (20 January 2013) that “UKIP is the only UK party to explicitly ban BNP members from joining”. What party, other than a party whose policies are attractive to such organisations, would need to do that?. Perhaps their 26% support depends most of all upon the dual meaning of this slogan ? If they try to move farther away from racism, they may lose more than they gain.
4) The reality of what could in practice be done, within even a decade, about Immigration/EU membership, would come home to roost, if UKIP ever looked like being in a position to actually have to deliver on their mandate single issue.
5) UKIP leaders DO NOT WANT TO BE IN GOVERNMENT - they want to be able to drive their single issue as far as possible, without distractions. Only in opposition, as a thorn in the side of a Labour government, can they do that. Farage knows this - but UKIPs rules require only 20% of its members to petition... and he could be deposed.