YouGov poll finds Labour now has less working class support than UKIP

A YouGov poll for the Times has revealed that UKIP has more support amongst working class voters than Labour and is only 10% behind Labour overall.

The poll highlights just how far Labour's support has declined nationally with the Tories the most popular party amongst working class voters with 39% supporting them. UKIP is the second most popular party amongst working class voters on 23% and Labour trailing in third with 20% support. Overall, the Tories are sitting on 40% for a general election with Labour trailing a distant second on 24% and UKIP in third on 14%.

It gets worse for Labour because even though Jeremy Corbyn is hugely unpopular with voters, experts believe that replacing him would do very little to shore up the Labour vote with the party fatally divided between the hard left Corbynites and the middle class Blairites who want social justice for all as long as someone else is paying for it.

ICM polls put Leave 3 points ahead

Two ICM polls published yesterday put Leave three points ahead of Remain.

What is encouraging is that one of the polls is telephone only whilst the other is online only. Telephone and online polls often produce wildly different results but to get the same result from both suggests consistent polling.

The poll results are great news but a three point lead isn't enough to win the referendum. People who are undecided are more likely to go for what they see as the status quo. We know that voting to remain isn't a vote for the status quo but a vote for the relentless march towards federalisation but most people won't understand this. Many "soft" leave voters - those who are inclined to vote to leave but aren't really convinced - will also switch to what they perceive to be the safe option on the day. Again, we know that the safe option is to leave but most people won't understand this.

The time to start ordering in the champagne is when Leave is polling consistently 8 or more points ahead of Remain. That doesn't mean it's in the bag, it means we're in front when you take all the above into account. The way we're going to get there at this late stage is not by trying to turn strong remain voters but by firming up soft leave voters and educating the undecided voters. You can spend half an hour talking to a remainiac and convince them that leave is the right choice but there's a strong possibility they'll be swung back the other way by the end of the day and even if they aren't they're only ever going to be a soft leave voter. You could have talked to 5 or 6 undecided voters and convinced them to leave in that time. Everyone likes a challenge but that one converted remainiac isn't going to win the referendum

Any poll that shows Leave ahead is encouraging but don't let it make you complacent, we need to work hard to increase that lead and make it stick!

YouGov says more than a quarter of UKIP voters would vote to stay in the EU

A YouGov poll for the Times claims that 28% of UKIP voters wouldn't vote to leave the EU.

The poll should put paid to the increasingly ridiculous and outdated claim that UKIP is a single issue party when quite clearly it isn't if over a quarter of UKIP voters don't agree with the party on its core policy of leaving the EU. It won't though.

UKIP supporters are still by far the most eurosceptic of any party with 72% saying they would leave the EU. Conservative supporters are next with a measly 55% saying they would leave the EU followed by Labour and Lib Dem voters with fewer than 40% saying they would leave the EU.

Support for leaving the EU is consistent across England but the Scots are firmly in favour of staying in. It never ceases to amaze that support for staying in the EU is so high amongst SNP voters who apparently want to take Scotland out of a union that was conceived for their benefit and in which they have disproportionate influence but want to stay in the European Union that was conceived for France and Germany's benefit and in which they have little to no influence.

UKIP winning in Thurrock and South Thanet, rogue poll in Rochester & Strood

Two separate polls have put UKIP ahead in Thurrock and South Thanet.

A Lord Ashcroft poll predicts a victory for Tim Aker who, if he wins, will have become a councillor, MEP and then an MP in just 12 months.

Party	Poll %
UKIP	35%
Labour	30%
Conservative	28%

A Survation poll predicts a whopping 7% majority for Nigel Farage in South Thanet. The poll also found that a third of residents in the constituency have talked to a UKIP activist on the doorstep and 1 in 5 have spoken to Nigel Farage.

Party	Poll %
UKIP	39%
Conservative	32%
Labour	26%

Meanwhile, the Daily Mail are claiming that a secret opinion poll commissioned by UKIP shows Mark Reckless losing his seat to the Tories but the party says it hasn't commissioned such a poll. Reckless tweeted:

Why does @LordAshcroft assume that "don't knows" who voted for me in 2010 as Conservative and in 2014 as UKIP will now vote for my opponent?
— Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) April 25, 2015

Poll suggests Nick Clegg will lose his seat in May

Opinion polling by Lord Ashcroft has put Labour 2 points head of the Lib Dems in Nick Clegg's constituency of Sheffield Hallam.

Nearly a fifth of Sheffield Hallam's voting population is students with two universities in the city. Clegg spectacularly backtracked on his very public pledge to abolish tuition fees and voted to increase the university tax in England from £3k a year to £9k.

It's understandable that students would want to punish Clegg for breaking his promise on tuition fees but it's a little strange that they would choose to do that by switching to the party that introduced them in the first place. It was the Labour Party that first introduced tuition fees in England and they were so unpopular that a majority of MPs elected in England voted against them forcing Labour to whip their Scottish MPs to force the vote through undemocratically.

Labour introduced the university tax in England, the Conservatives and Lib Dems tripled it and only UKIP has a policy of abolishing it for degrees in core subjects such as nursing and engineering. If the people of Sheffield Hallam want to punish those responsible for condemning students to tens of thousands of pounds of debt then the only way to do this is by voting UKIP.

Labour’s poster attacking the Lib Dems

Why we have the university tax in the first place

Survation predicts 16 seats for UKIP

UKIP could win 16 seats in May according to a Survation poll for the Mirror.

The poll puts the Conservatives on 31%, Labour on 30% and UKIP on 23%. The Lib Dems lead the minor parties on 7%, the SNP are on 5% and the Greens are on 3%.

Despite polling less than a third of UKIP's projected share of the vote, the analysis suggests that the Lib Dems would win 27 seats compared to 16. The first past the post system really should have been thrown out by now and replaced with a system that reflects how people actually vote.

The seats they predict turning purple are:

• Waveney
• Wyre Forest
• Rother Valley
• Plymouth Moor View
• Walsall North
• St Austell and Newquay
• Dudley North
• Camborne and Redruth
• Cannock Chase
• Great Grimsby
• Great Yarmouth
• Heywood and Middleton
• Thanet South
• Rochester and Strood
• Thurrock
• Clacton

The polling analysis shows that UKIP threatens Labour and the Conservatives in equal measures. UKIP are predicted to take 7 seats off the Conservatives, 6 off Labour, 1 off the Lib Dems and hold the 2 seats that already have UKIP MPs.

Opinium have UKIP on 18%, YouGov on 16% and Mark Reckless is bookies favourite for Rochester

An opinion poll conducted by Opinium for the Observer newspaper puts Labour and the Conservatives level pegging on 33% each with UKIP on 18%.

The poll also found that 31% of people would consider voting UKIP in their constituency if they thought UKIP could win.

Opinium didn't get the ComRes memo and put UKIP in the "other" section again which, as ComRes showed a week ago, results in an artificially low projected vote share for UKIP.

Party	%
Conservative	33%
Labour	33%
UKIP	18%
Lib Dems	6%
Green	4%

A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times also finds the Conservatives and Labour level pegging on 33% with UKIP at 16%.

Party	%
Conservative	33%
Labour	33%
UKIP	16%
Lib Dems	7%
Green	6%

UKIP are currently favourites to win the Rochester & Strood by-election with bookies offering odds of 1/5 for Mark Reckless against 11/2 for the second favourite Conservative and the waste of space Lib Dems 1/10 to lose their deposit.

ComRes poll puts UKIP 13% ahead in Rochester & Strood

A ComRes constituency poll in Rochester & Strood puts UKIP 13% clear of the Conservatives in next month's by-election caused by the defection to UKIP and subsequent resignation of Mark Reckless.

The key statistic that will send Labour into panic mode and proves Cameron's "vote UKIP, get Labour" propaganda to be absolute nonsense is that 39% of people who voted Conservative last election will be voting UKIP, 39% of people who voted Lib Dem last election will be voting UKIP and 30% of people who voted Labour last time will be voting UKIP. We are taking votes off all three of the old parties.

Like we saw in the Heywood & Middleton by-election earlier this month, a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for Labour and don't let David Cameron or the Tory propaganda machine con you into thinking otherwise.

Party	%
UKIP	43%
Conservative	30%
Labour	21%
Green	3%
Lib Dem	3%

ComRes poll puts UKIP on 24%

UKIP is on 24% in the latest ComRes opinion poll which is a great result but what makes it so interesting is that it's a survey where UKIP is prompted alongside the LibLabCon parties and the difference that makes is quite startling.

Here's what the opinion polls say when UKIP is in the "Others" section ...

UKIP in "Others"
Party	%
Labour	34%
Conservative	31%
UKIP	19%
Lib Dems	7%
Greens	4%

... and here's how it looks when UKIP is prompted alongside the LibLabCon parties ...

UKIP Prompted
Party	%
Labour	31%
Conservative	29%
UKIP	24%
Lib Dems	7%
Greens	5%

That's a whole 5% difference and at the expense of both Labour and the Tories.

These polls are just a snapshot of public opinion and vary by a couple of percent from week to week but they're important because they aren't just a snapshot of public opinion, they influence public opinion as well. When a party does well in opinion polls it gives the public more confidence in them but when a party does badly in opinion polls it perpetuates the "wasted vote" myth (no vote is wasted, whoever you vote for). Success breeds success.

Some of the polling companies - and YouGov in particular - like to use this influence to further their agenda (YouGov's CEO is Baroness Ashtray's husband) and protect their business. Polling companies get paid to predict elections and the last thing they want is an interloper like UKIP upsetting the status quo and making their lives difficult so they do what they can to undermine voter confidence in the party by suppressing voting intention.

Contrast YouGov, who don't have a very good record at predicting UKIP's performance, with relative newcomers Survation, who do. Survation don't have an axe to grind and being a new polling company they're more interested in predicting results rather than influencing them. They've always prompted for UKIP and as a result, they've had a degree of success in predicting UKIP's performance. It's time the other pollsters - YouGov, Opinium, ICM, ComRes - followed suit and concentrated on making predictions that reflect reality instead of trying to make reality fit their predictions.

Survation puts UKIP on 25% in post-Clacton poll

A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday has UKIP on an unbelievable 25% nationally.

The poll results do need to be treated with some caution as it was conducted on Friday whilst UKIP was in every newspaper and on every news programme thanks to Douglas Carswell's historic by-election victory in Clacton but even allowing for that, it is a fantastic showing for the party.

Party	%
Labour	31%
Conservative	31%
UKIP	25%
Other	9%
Lib Dem	8%

Survation's analysis makes grim reading for both Cameron and Miliband who would be unable to secure a majority or even form a workable minority government. As Nigel Farage has rightly ruled out a coalition with any party after the next election we could realistically see a ConLab coalition in 2015 as both parties are so similar nowadays on all the major issues or alternatively a minority Labour government supported by UKIP on a supply and demand basis. Without a UKIP majority the future looks pretty grim for the country but with 25% of the vote we could secure as many as 128 MPs which is a sizeable force for good in Westminster.

Survation poll for Mail on Sunday predicts "UKIP by-election bloodbath" in Clacton

Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday has the results of some astonishing Survation polling in Clacton following the defection of Tory MP, Douglas Carswell.

With the headline "Cameron faces UKIP by-election bloodbath" the Mail reports that 64% of voters in Clacton intend to vote UKIP and 91% of those because they like UKIP or Carswell. The Tory spin that voting UKIP will let Miliband become Prime Minister has failed to resonate with Clacton voters with 69% saying it makes no difference to their voting intentions.

Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and William Hill all have UKIP and Douglas Carswell odds on favourite to win the Clacton by-election:

Ladbrokes: UKIP 1/10

Paddy Power: UKIP 1/7

William Hill: UKIP 1/4

The full results in tomorrow's Mail are as follows:

UKIP's lead widens in two polls

Two new opinion polls have shown a massive jump in support for UKIP despite a massive media campaign against the party.

A TNS-BMRB poll has UKIP 9 points clear of Labour and a ComRes poll has UKIP 11 points in front.

TNS-BMRB
Party	%
UKIP	36%
Labour	27%
Conservative	18%
Lib Dem	10%

ComRes
Party	%
UKIP	38%
Labour	27%
Conservative	18%
Lib Dem	8%

UKIP first for EU elections in YouGov poll

YouGov have UKIP in the lead for the EU elections next month.

UKIP's vote share is always depressed in YouGov polls so coming first in one of them 4 weeks before an election is really encouraging, especially when the media are devoting so much time and effort to trying to undermine the party.

Party	%
UKIP	31%
Lab	28%
Con	19%

Comres put UKIP in first place for EU elections

A ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror has UKIP in first place for May's EU elections on 30%, followed by Labour on 28%, Conservatives on 21%, the Lib Dems on 8% and the Greens on 7%. The Lib Dems have dropped 10 points since May last year.

The UKIP vote is somewhat muted for next year's general election but a strong third place as you'd expect with the Lib Dems still polling half of UKIP's vote. The gap between Labour at the top and the Conservatives in second place is closing and most people don't think Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister after the next election.

EU Elections
Party	%	+/-
UKIP	30%	+3
Lab	28%	+5
Con	21%	-
LD	8%	-10
Green	6%	+2
Other	7%	-

General Election
Party	%	+/-
Lab	35%	-2
Con	32%	-
UKIP	16%	+1
LD	9%	-
Other	8%	+1

Mirror poll shows overwhelming support for UKIP

The Mirror reports on Lord Ashcroft's polling that shows the Tories have lost 37% of their support and that half of that support has gone to UKIP.

Shockingly for a Labour-supporting newspaper, the online poll following the article is showing massive support for UKIP suggesting that Labour voters are turning to UKIP in greater numbers than previously thought.

Survation polling shows UKIP the only competition in 3 more constituencies

The latest constituency polling by Survation on behalf of Alan Bown will make grim reading for the Tories who are going to have to rethink their strategy of telling people that voting UKIP lets Labour win after another three constituencies are shown to be a two horse race between UKIP and Labour.

UKIP donor Alan Bown has commissioned Survation to conduct polling in some marginal constituencies and the results are clear: only UKIP can beat Labour or Conservative in 5 of the 7 constituencies polled so far.

In the South Thanet constituency UKIP is polling in second place and most UKIP voters wouldn't vote Conservative even if there was no UKIP candidate. In Great Grimsby UKIP is polling in second place and 70% of people who said they'd vote UKIP didn't vote Tory last time.  In Dudley North constituency UKIP is polling in third place.

The latest four constituencies carry on that theme.

In Folkestone & Hythe constituency UKIP is polling second behind the Conservatives in what was a safe seat in the last general election with a 19% Tory lead over the Lib Dems who are now polling in fourth place on just 10%. The Conservatives are still polling in first place with 35% of the vote but UKIP is closing the gap with 28%, followed by Labour on 21%.

In Bognor Regis & Littlehampton constituency UKIP is again polling second behind the Conservatives in what was an even safer seat than Folkestone at the last general election. Here the majority of 27% the Tories enjoyed in 2010 has been slashed to 10% with UKIP well clear of Labour. The Tories are polling 37%, UKIP are polling 27%, Labour are polling just 20% and the Lib Dems are again languishing in fourth place on a measly 10%.

Great Yarmouth is probably the most interesting result. The UKIP vote has gone from 5% in 2010 to 30% which is enough to move to second place. The Tories currently hold Great Yarmouth but Labour are now polling in first place with 37%, UKIP is second with 30%, Conservatives are third with 28% and the Lib Dems an irrelevant fourth with just 4%. The results show that UKIP is attracting almost as many Labour voters as Tories in Great Yarmouth.

Finally, in Crewe & Nantwich the UKIP vote is lower than in the other three constituencies polled at 11% (compared to 3% in 2010) but these are fairly evenly spread across traditional Tory and Labour voters. The weak UKIP vote means Labour are predicted to hold Crewe & Nantwich (the scene of one of the most hypocritical negative election campaigns Labour has ever run in 2010) with 46% of the vote, the Tories are second on 33%, UKIP are third on 11% and the Lib Dems are fourth on 6%.

Most people who intend to vote UKIP said they would vote UKIP even if it meant Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister (another one of the ridiculous non-arguments the Tories have been peddling as a reason to vote for them) and most people said they wouldn't vote at all if there was no UKIP candidate. This shows quite clearly that there is a UKIP vote that is tribally UKIP and not a loaned vote from one of the other parties. This is another milestone in the maturity of the party and demonstrates UKIP's successful transition from a single issue protest a decade ago to the third party in UK politics and a credible party of government.

Survation poll shows that only UKIP can beat Labour in South Thanet

A Survation poll on voting intentions in the South Thanet constituency published today makes interesting reading.

The poll shows that only UKIP can challenge Labour in South Thanet and only 22% of UKIP voters would consider voting Conservative if there was no UKIP candidate. Almost two thirds of people who said they intended to vote for UKIP said so because they like UKIP policies whereas most Conservative and Labour voters said they would vote for those parties simply out of habit.

The timing of the poll is perfect because the europhile Tory MP for South Thanet, Laura Sandys, announced this week that she would be standing down at the next election which immediately sparked rumours that Nigel Farage would pick it as his constituency for the 2015 general election.

Predictably, Tory propagandist Harry Cole has tried to spin this poll as evidence that voting UKIP lets Labour win on the Guido Fawkes blog despite the evidence showing that actually, voting Conservative in South Thanet will split the UKIP vote and let Labour win.  If UKIP didn't put up a candidate in South Thanet, the Tories still couldn't win because whilst 22% of UKIP voters said they would vote Conservative if there was no UKIP candidate, 19% said they would vote Labour and 52% of UKIP voters said they would still vote UKIP even if it meant Ed Miliband would become prime minster against just 27% who said they would vote "tactically" for the Tories to stop him.

The Tories have been busily promoting the party line that voting UKIP lets Labour win all over the country and here we have the evidence to back up what we've been telling people all along which is that a vote for UKIP is a vote for UKIP and in many cases voting Tory splits the UKIP vote and lets Labour or the Lib Dems win.

In 2015 we will see UKIP's first MPs elected and Labour getting the most MPs elected. The extent to which Labour will win depends entirely on how much the Tories split the UKIP vote. UKIP attracts votes from all three of the old parties so if they're clever, the Tories will step aside in marginal seats like South Thanet that they just can't win and negotiate with UKIP for support to form a minority government (but no coalition) to keep Labour out of power.

The voters of South Thanet have made it very clear: vote blue, get red.

UKIP on 21% in Opinium poll

An Opinium poll for the Observer has UKIP on a new high (for Opinium) of 21% with the Lib Dems on their lowest ever rating of 6%.

David Cameron's rating is down again to 28% while Ed Miliband's rating is just 22% and Nick Clegg's a lowly 12%.

We incorrectly attributed this poll to Survation last night. Let that be a lesson to you all on the dangers of late night blogging!

ComRes poll predicts EU election win for UKIP

A ComRes poll for Open Europe puts UKIP on 27% for the EU elections with Labour in second place on 23% and the Tories on 21%. The Lib Dems are a distant fourth with just 9%.

The same poll predicts 37% for Labour, 26% for the Tories and UKIP on 20% in a general election.  The Lib Dems are once again a distant fourth on 9%.

The poll also found that while 41% of people would vote to leave the EU with 37% voting to stay in, that would change to 47% voting to stay in and 32% voting to leave if significant powers could be repatriated from the EU.  Human nature will always favour the soft option, the compromise.  But as it's not possible to take power off the EU once you've given it to them without leaving the mythical "third way" isn't going to be an option.

Open Europe has tried to spin the poll as massive support for the EU as you would expect from a pro-EU think tank that campaigns for reform but really it's not.  Most people want to leave the EU and most would take the easy way out if it was possible which it's not.  Open Europe can spin it all they like but this isn't a positive poll for the europhiles.

UKIP averages 18% across three polls

UKIP is polling 19% in a ComRes opinion poll for the Sunday Mirror, 20% in an Opinium poll for the Observer and 15% in an ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph.

ComRes
Lab	37%
Con	27%
UKIP	19%
Lib Dem	7%

Opinium
Lab	35%
Con	29%
UKIP	20%
Lib Dem	8%

ICM
Lab	32%
Con	29%
UKIP	15%
Lib Dem	16%

Across all three polls, Labour are averaging 35%, the Tories 28%, UKIP 18% and the Lib Dems 10%.