UKIP on 12% in Survation poll

UKIP is well out in front of the Lib Dems with 12% against their 8% in a Survation poll published last night.

Labour	43%
Conservative	30%
UKIP	12%
Lib Dem	8%

BBC coverage of the poll in the news last night ignored UKIP and pretended the Lib Dems were in third place, even displaying a graphic showing just Labour, Tories and Lib Dems.  Survation Chief Executive, Damian Lyons Lowe, writes extensively on their website about the folly of pretending we still have a three party system and repeats pretty much every criticism written on Bloggers4UKIP of YouGov and others trying to perpetuate the myth of the three party system - criticism that has led directly to at least three polling companies either changing the way they ask for voting intention or the way they report it.

A YouGov poll also published last night has UKIP and the Lib Dems level pegging on 9%.  The full breakdown of results shows most Lib Dem support comes from the rich and young people which is really quite inexplicable bearing in mind their betrayal of students over tuition fees and regressive wealth taxes.  UKIP support is greatest amongst the middle aged and above and working classes.

Labour	32%
Conservative	43%
UKIP	9%
Lib Dem	9%

Survation polling also shows that support for leaving the EU has now reached 51% with just 34% saying they want to stay in and 15% undecided.  This is an increase of 10% in a year and has led to the Tories briefing that David Cameron is thinking about possibly not being entirely unconvinced that the possibility of perhaps having a referendum on membership of the EU might not entirely be completely out of the question as long as it could be gerrymandered to produce the right answer.

ComRes puts UKIP on 7%

A ComRes poll has UKIP on 7% amongst those who have indicated that they intend to vote with the Lib Dems on 9%.

Interestingly, while the 26% of traditional Conservative voters saying they would vote UKIP if there were a general election tomorrow is almost a given nowadays, a surprisingly high 14% of Lib Dem and 11% of Labour voters said they too would vote UKIP.

One interesting and quite odd statistic is that if voting was a legal requirement, 6% would vote UKIP or Lib Dem but 7% would vote Green.  If voting was voluntary, only 2% would vote Green which would suggest that either environmentalism doesn't motivate people enough to actually go out and vote for it or the left wing extremism that underpins the Green Party's wide manifesto is a big turn off.

UKIP and the Greens are the parties most likely to attract floating or protest voters according to the question "who would you seriously consider voting for at a general election".  13% of respondents said they would seriously consider voting UKIP or Lib Dem while only 10% said Lib Dem and 9% said Labour or Conservative.

The most surprising statistic of all is that 7% of people who consider themselves to be UKIP think leaving the EU would be bad for jobs and trade and 3% would vote to stay in the EU in a referendum and 6% don't know.  UKIP is clearly attracting people who are soft on the EU but support UKIP's other policies enough to vote for the party.  If a referendum were held on leaving the EU, 46% of people would vote to leave, 30% would vote to stay in and 24% are undecided.