UKIP winning in Thurrock and South Thanet, rogue poll in Rochester & Strood

Two separate polls have put UKIP ahead in Thurrock and South Thanet.

A Lord Ashcroft poll predicts a victory for Tim Aker who, if he wins, will have become a councillor, MEP and then an MP in just 12 months.

Party	Poll %
UKIP	35%
Labour	30%
Conservative	28%

A Survation poll predicts a whopping 7% majority for Nigel Farage in South Thanet. The poll also found that a third of residents in the constituency have talked to a UKIP activist on the doorstep and 1 in 5 have spoken to Nigel Farage.

Party	Poll %
UKIP	39%
Conservative	32%
Labour	26%

Meanwhile, the Daily Mail are claiming that a secret opinion poll commissioned by UKIP shows Mark Reckless losing his seat to the Tories but the party says it hasn't commissioned such a poll. Reckless tweeted:

Why does @LordAshcroft assume that "don't knows" who voted for me in 2010 as Conservative and in 2014 as UKIP will now vote for my opponent?
— Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) April 25, 2015

Survation has Nigel Farage 11% clear in South Thanet

Constituency polling by Survation in South Thanet puts Nigel Farage 11% in front of Labour, 12% in front of the Conservatives and on course to win the seat in May.

Survation has the best record of predicting UKIP success (or otherwise) in elections which is presumably why Alan Bown chose them to perform all his constituency polling. If Survation are calling it for Farage then Labour and the Tories should be very worried.

The Tories are going into the election with a respectable 6.6% majority which translates into what should be a comfortable 7,617 votes clear of the opposition but UKIP is decimating the Tory vote and taking chunks out of Labour too.

Voting Conservative in South Thanet will only split the UKIP vote and let Labour win.

Survation predicts 16 seats for UKIP

UKIP could win 16 seats in May according to a Survation poll for the Mirror.

The poll puts the Conservatives on 31%, Labour on 30% and UKIP on 23%. The Lib Dems lead the minor parties on 7%, the SNP are on 5% and the Greens are on 3%.

Despite polling less than a third of UKIP's projected share of the vote, the analysis suggests that the Lib Dems would win 27 seats compared to 16. The first past the post system really should have been thrown out by now and replaced with a system that reflects how people actually vote.

The seats they predict turning purple are:

• Waveney
• Wyre Forest
• Rother Valley
• Plymouth Moor View
• Walsall North
• St Austell and Newquay
• Dudley North
• Camborne and Redruth
• Cannock Chase
• Great Grimsby
• Great Yarmouth
• Heywood and Middleton
• Thanet South
• Rochester and Strood
• Thurrock
• Clacton

The polling analysis shows that UKIP threatens Labour and the Conservatives in equal measures. UKIP are predicted to take 7 seats off the Conservatives, 6 off Labour, 1 off the Lib Dems and hold the 2 seats that already have UKIP MPs.

Survation puts UKIP on 25% in post-Clacton poll

A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday has UKIP on an unbelievable 25% nationally.

The poll results do need to be treated with some caution as it was conducted on Friday whilst UKIP was in every newspaper and on every news programme thanks to Douglas Carswell's historic by-election victory in Clacton but even allowing for that, it is a fantastic showing for the party.

Party	%
Labour	31%
Conservative	31%
UKIP	25%
Other	9%
Lib Dem	8%

Survation's analysis makes grim reading for both Cameron and Miliband who would be unable to secure a majority or even form a workable minority government. As Nigel Farage has rightly ruled out a coalition with any party after the next election we could realistically see a ConLab coalition in 2015 as both parties are so similar nowadays on all the major issues or alternatively a minority Labour government supported by UKIP on a supply and demand basis. Without a UKIP majority the future looks pretty grim for the country but with 25% of the vote we could secure as many as 128 MPs which is a sizeable force for good in Westminster.

Reckless on 9% lead in Rochester & Strood

The Nasty Party's attacks on Mark Reckless that have forced him to move his family out of Rochester and on UKIP members in general look to have backfired on them.

A Survation poll for the Mail of Sunday puts UKIP on 40% in the Rochester & Strood constituency with the Tories 9 points behind on 31%. Labour are third on 25% and the Lib Dems set to lose their deposit with just 2% of the vote.

There are some interesting statistics in the polling that should worry both Labour and the Tories. Only 12% said they would be voting for Reckless because they like him, 70% said they were voting UKIP because they support UKIP's policies and 88% of those who are voting for UKIP said they will vote for UKIP in the general election next year.

Survation has been consistently close to the mark when predicting UKIP success so there will no doubt be a tentative sigh of relief in the Reckless household.

Survation poll for Mail on Sunday predicts "UKIP by-election bloodbath" in Clacton

Tomorrow's Mail on Sunday has the results of some astonishing Survation polling in Clacton following the defection of Tory MP, Douglas Carswell.

With the headline "Cameron faces UKIP by-election bloodbath" the Mail reports that 64% of voters in Clacton intend to vote UKIP and 91% of those because they like UKIP or Carswell. The Tory spin that voting UKIP will let Miliband become Prime Minister has failed to resonate with Clacton voters with 69% saying it makes no difference to their voting intentions.

Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and William Hill all have UKIP and Douglas Carswell odds on favourite to win the Clacton by-election:

Ladbrokes: UKIP 1/10

Paddy Power: UKIP 1/7

William Hill: UKIP 1/4

The full results in tomorrow's Mail are as follows:

Survation polling shows UKIP the only competition in 3 more constituencies

The latest constituency polling by Survation on behalf of Alan Bown will make grim reading for the Tories who are going to have to rethink their strategy of telling people that voting UKIP lets Labour win after another three constituencies are shown to be a two horse race between UKIP and Labour.

UKIP donor Alan Bown has commissioned Survation to conduct polling in some marginal constituencies and the results are clear: only UKIP can beat Labour or Conservative in 5 of the 7 constituencies polled so far.

In the South Thanet constituency UKIP is polling in second place and most UKIP voters wouldn't vote Conservative even if there was no UKIP candidate. In Great Grimsby UKIP is polling in second place and 70% of people who said they'd vote UKIP didn't vote Tory last time.  In Dudley North constituency UKIP is polling in third place.

The latest four constituencies carry on that theme.

In Folkestone & Hythe constituency UKIP is polling second behind the Conservatives in what was a safe seat in the last general election with a 19% Tory lead over the Lib Dems who are now polling in fourth place on just 10%. The Conservatives are still polling in first place with 35% of the vote but UKIP is closing the gap with 28%, followed by Labour on 21%.

In Bognor Regis & Littlehampton constituency UKIP is again polling second behind the Conservatives in what was an even safer seat than Folkestone at the last general election. Here the majority of 27% the Tories enjoyed in 2010 has been slashed to 10% with UKIP well clear of Labour. The Tories are polling 37%, UKIP are polling 27%, Labour are polling just 20% and the Lib Dems are again languishing in fourth place on a measly 10%.

Great Yarmouth is probably the most interesting result. The UKIP vote has gone from 5% in 2010 to 30% which is enough to move to second place. The Tories currently hold Great Yarmouth but Labour are now polling in first place with 37%, UKIP is second with 30%, Conservatives are third with 28% and the Lib Dems an irrelevant fourth with just 4%. The results show that UKIP is attracting almost as many Labour voters as Tories in Great Yarmouth.

Finally, in Crewe & Nantwich the UKIP vote is lower than in the other three constituencies polled at 11% (compared to 3% in 2010) but these are fairly evenly spread across traditional Tory and Labour voters. The weak UKIP vote means Labour are predicted to hold Crewe & Nantwich (the scene of one of the most hypocritical negative election campaigns Labour has ever run in 2010) with 46% of the vote, the Tories are second on 33%, UKIP are third on 11% and the Lib Dems are fourth on 6%.

Most people who intend to vote UKIP said they would vote UKIP even if it meant Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister (another one of the ridiculous non-arguments the Tories have been peddling as a reason to vote for them) and most people said they wouldn't vote at all if there was no UKIP candidate. This shows quite clearly that there is a UKIP vote that is tribally UKIP and not a loaned vote from one of the other parties. This is another milestone in the maturity of the party and demonstrates UKIP's successful transition from a single issue protest a decade ago to the third party in UK politics and a credible party of government.

UKIP second and third in Grimsby and Dudley

Another two of Alan Bown's constituency polls have been published by Survation showing UKIP in second place for Great Grimsby and a close third for Dudley North.

The first of these polls showed that UKIP is the only party that can beat Labour in South Thanet.  These two polls aren't as close but they show that UKIP's vote is consistently holding up in key marginals and that UKIP is as big a threat to Labour as it is to the Tories.  In all three cases, the Lib Dems are an irrelevant smudge at the bottom of the graph.

Great Grimsby and Dudley North are 9th and 10th on the Conservative Party's list of most winnable seats which would suggest a drubbing for the Tories at the next election.  What is really interesting is that 70% of people who said they would vote UKIP in the next general election didn't vote Tory last time.  The claim that UKIP only attracts Tory voters and that voting UKIP lets Labour win is just nonsense as these polls are showing.

Survation poll shows that only UKIP can beat Labour in South Thanet

A Survation poll on voting intentions in the South Thanet constituency published today makes interesting reading.

The poll shows that only UKIP can challenge Labour in South Thanet and only 22% of UKIP voters would consider voting Conservative if there was no UKIP candidate. Almost two thirds of people who said they intended to vote for UKIP said so because they like UKIP policies whereas most Conservative and Labour voters said they would vote for those parties simply out of habit.

The timing of the poll is perfect because the europhile Tory MP for South Thanet, Laura Sandys, announced this week that she would be standing down at the next election which immediately sparked rumours that Nigel Farage would pick it as his constituency for the 2015 general election.

Predictably, Tory propagandist Harry Cole has tried to spin this poll as evidence that voting UKIP lets Labour win on the Guido Fawkes blog despite the evidence showing that actually, voting Conservative in South Thanet will split the UKIP vote and let Labour win.  If UKIP didn't put up a candidate in South Thanet, the Tories still couldn't win because whilst 22% of UKIP voters said they would vote Conservative if there was no UKIP candidate, 19% said they would vote Labour and 52% of UKIP voters said they would still vote UKIP even if it meant Ed Miliband would become prime minster against just 27% who said they would vote "tactically" for the Tories to stop him.

The Tories have been busily promoting the party line that voting UKIP lets Labour win all over the country and here we have the evidence to back up what we've been telling people all along which is that a vote for UKIP is a vote for UKIP and in many cases voting Tory splits the UKIP vote and lets Labour or the Lib Dems win.

In 2015 we will see UKIP's first MPs elected and Labour getting the most MPs elected. The extent to which Labour will win depends entirely on how much the Tories split the UKIP vote. UKIP attracts votes from all three of the old parties so if they're clever, the Tories will step aside in marginal seats like South Thanet that they just can't win and negotiate with UKIP for support to form a minority government (but no coalition) to keep Labour out of power.

The voters of South Thanet have made it very clear: vote blue, get red.

Polling suggests UKIP will hold balance of power after election

UKIP is outpolling the Lib Dems by more than 2 to 1 and more importantly, would hold the balance of power if the polling turned into actual vote share in the next general election.

In Survation's latest poll for the Guardian, Labour are still out in front on a slightly diminished 39% with the Tories in second place on a record low of 27%.  UKIP are third with a projected 17% of the vote with the Lib Dems trailing in 4th place with just 8%.

It means that for the first time the only way the Tories could form a government would be with UKIP's help.  I'm not suggesting that UKIP should form an electoral pact with the Tories - I would never support such a move unless UKIP was the majority partner - but supporting a minority Tory government on a policy by policy basis would put UKIP in an extremely powerful position.

Survation predict third place for UKIP in Eastleigh

Survation is predicting a third place for UKIP in the Eastleigh by-election with a Lib Dem hold.

According to Survation, the Lib Dems will just scrape a victory with 36% of the vote followed by the Tories on 33% and UKIP with 16%.  Labour are predicted to come fourth on just 13% with 2% shared between the Monster Raving Loony Party, National Health Action Party and Trade Union & Socialist Party.

UKIP on 16%, predicted to cost Tories next election

An opinion poll for the Daily Mail has UKIP on 16% and a predicted loss of 51 seats for the Tories as a result.

I think you've earned a
smug grin Nigel

The poll by Survation and analysed by Professor John Curtice predicts a landslide Labour majority of 94 seats thanks largely to UKIP.  Curtice reckons that UKIP still won't win a Westminster seat because of the antiquated First Past the Post electoral system even though the party is projected to take 1 in 6 votes nationwide and over 50% of respondents wanted to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP.

Tories will no doubt seize on this analysis and tell UKIP supporters they're letting Labour in and what a terrible thing that would be as is their wont but that kind of reaction is just an example of why the Tories are in the situation they're in.  Tories arrogantly lay a claim to any UKIP vote, believing they belong to them in some way and mistakenly assume that UKIP supporters would rather a Tory government to Labour when the truth is, most UKIPpers couldn't choose one over the other if you put a gun to their heads.

Cameron has greeted the news that UKIP is fast leaving behind the Lib Dems and catching up with his party by telling Andrew Marr that UKIP supporters are "some pretty odd people".  He also said that the referendum the Tories have been teasing the media with will offer "a real way of giving consent" to our membership of the EU.  So he describes 1 in 6 voters as "pretty odd" and then responds to the increasingly vocal demands for an in/out referendum on EU membership that most voters want by watering down his previous promise of an in/out/reform referendum to become a no change/reform referendum.  After the next election of course, that's a Cast Iron Guarantee™.

The results of the polling are: Labour 38%, Conservative 29%, UKIP 16% and the Lib Dems on just 11%.

UKIP on 12% in Survation poll

UKIP is well out in front of the Lib Dems with 12% against their 8% in a Survation poll published last night.

Labour	43%
Conservative	30%
UKIP	12%
Lib Dem	8%

BBC coverage of the poll in the news last night ignored UKIP and pretended the Lib Dems were in third place, even displaying a graphic showing just Labour, Tories and Lib Dems.  Survation Chief Executive, Damian Lyons Lowe, writes extensively on their website about the folly of pretending we still have a three party system and repeats pretty much every criticism written on Bloggers4UKIP of YouGov and others trying to perpetuate the myth of the three party system - criticism that has led directly to at least three polling companies either changing the way they ask for voting intention or the way they report it.

A YouGov poll also published last night has UKIP and the Lib Dems level pegging on 9%.  The full breakdown of results shows most Lib Dem support comes from the rich and young people which is really quite inexplicable bearing in mind their betrayal of students over tuition fees and regressive wealth taxes.  UKIP support is greatest amongst the middle aged and above and working classes.

Labour	32%
Conservative	43%
UKIP	9%
Lib Dem	9%

Survation polling also shows that support for leaving the EU has now reached 51% with just 34% saying they want to stay in and 15% undecided.  This is an increase of 10% in a year and has led to the Tories briefing that David Cameron is thinking about possibly not being entirely unconvinced that the possibility of perhaps having a referendum on membership of the EU might not entirely be completely out of the question as long as it could be gerrymandered to produce the right answer.

Spare a thought for those less fortunate

While UKIP members are still basking in the 12% predicted vote share - in front of the Lib Dems once again - in Sunday's Survation poll, we should spare a thought for those less fortunate than ourselves.  No, I'm not referring to the Lib Dems, I mean the English Democrats.

The political brain behind the English Democrats' consistently disastrous performance at every election they contest bar one and the man responsible for their awful public profile, terrible reputation, the BNP takeover of their party and attempted deals with terrorists, Steve Uncles, has read the Survation polling data and taken heart from the fact that 10% of the voting intention was for "nationalists".

Except it's not.  The 10% the English Democrats are laying claim to is all non LibLabCon and UKIP votes.  In this respect the English Democrats are not unlike the Tories who think they have an automatic right to any eurosceptic vote.  These "nationalists" include the Greens and Respect, one-world communists who have less respect for nations than Steve Uncles has for mentally-ill, suicidal bloggers and over half of the "other" votes was for the Green Party.

It's easy to see where the English Democrats are going wrong though when you consider that their campaigns guru is trying to spin an opinion poll where the English Democrats came bottom of the list of voting intentions as being a good thing rather than pretending it didn't happen as you would expect when the polling company can only find two people who said they would vote for you.

The "other" parties break down as follows:

Green 5.1%

SNP 2.2%

BNP 1.8%

Respect 0.5%

Plaid Cymru 0.3%

English Democrats 0.2%

Another Party 0.2%

Undecided 0.5%

Refuse 1%

Over half the "other" votes would go to the Greens, a party that's pretty much the polar opposite of the English Democrats.  Despite plundering the BNP's membership for assorted knuckledraggers and holocaust deniers, nine times as many people were less embarrassed to say they'd vote for the tainted BNP than the English Democrats.  The Respect Party, represented by George Galloway who's managed to offend half the population in the last couple of weeks trying to play down rape and now calling a Twitter follower a "window licker", can expect more than double the votes of the English Democrats.  The SNP can expect 2.2% of the UK-wide vote despite only contesting seats in Scotland and Plaid Cymru can expect 0.3% despite contesting only Welsh seats yet the English Democrats, who they proclaim as the English version of the SNP, can expect just 0.2% of the vote from contesting elections in 85% of the UK.

These aren't encouraging results for the English Democrats, they're an embarrassment second only to the embarrassment that has publicised them.  And to think, this is the party that said it was going to beat UKIP in the Barnsley by-election!

If there is anyone left in joke of an outfit who's serious about politics and isn't a BNP reject, come and join the other half of the English Democrats who've already made the move to UKIP.

UKIP on 12%in Survation poll

A Survation pool for the Mall on Sunday yesterday had UKIP on a record 12%, a good 2% clear of forth place Lib Dems.

We've known for a long time that UKIP us has taken over from the Lib Dems as the third party in English politics but why do these poll results rarely seem to translate into the electoral success they predict?

The First Past the Post electoral system is by far the biggest reason. UKIP out polled the Lib Dems pretty consistently in this years local elections yet the Lib Dems got many times more seats than UKIP. They weren't more popular than UKIP, they merely benefited from the mediaeval voting system that maintains the LibLabCon's stranglehold on local and national government. EU Parliament elections are all the evidence you need of how the First Past the Post system is failing voters (and UKIP of course) - in a system where almost every vote it's counted, UKIP got the second largest vote share and the second highest number of seats. People got what they voted for and at the next EU elections UKIP is widely anticipated to beat the europhile Tories and come first. Under the First Past the Post system UKIP would have been lucky to get an MEP, let alone 12.

The next biggest reason is the perception that only Labour or the Tories (and in some cases, the Lib Dems) can win. This is a ridiculous belief to have because the party that most people vote for well win, regardless of which party it is. We've been so conditioned by vested interests over the years into belting there are only two and a half political parties capable of winning elections that we've forgotten that it's us - the electorate - who decide who can and can't win, not the establishment political parties who perpetuate this myth.

It's not just the LibLabCon who maintain this lie that only they can win elections though, the media and most of the polling companies do too. The BBC listed UKIP alongside the LibLabCon in an article on is website the other week for the first time ever. The party has been in existence for well over a decade, has hundreds of local councillors, is the second largest UK party in the EU Parliament, is the fastest growing mainstream party in the UK and has beaten LibLabCon parties in Westminster by-elections many times yet the BBC had only now deigned to treat UKIP as equals. The only time the state broadcaster has ever given UKIP a proportionate amount of coverage prior to an election was when Nigel Farage almost killed himself in a plane crash on election day. The BBC will always promote the Greens as the fourth party whether there is any evidence that they are or not because it fits the BBC's agenda. The dead tree press aren't much better either, with the exception of the Express - a Tory rag which gives UKIP soft support to try and pressure David Cameron into adopting a eurosceptic stance at which point they would drop UKIP like a hot potato. It doesn't help that the media is almost entirely controlled by Tory supporters with a couple of exceptions but then newspapers are big business and socialists are bad for business.

So what of the polling companies? Survation it's the only polling company that offers up every party in a list for the respondent to choose from, rather than offering LibLabCon and "Other" and their record speaks for itself. Angus Reid and YouGov include UKIP in their headlines and graphics but only after extensive lobbying by us but they still list UKIP under "Other" when asking for voting intention. At by-elections the polling companies are happy to give parity to UKIP because it makes for interesting headlines but in local and general elections they want the same comfortable two and a half horse race they're used to because that's where the money is so they put the blinkers on and join in the only Labour/Tories/Lib Dems can win here mantra and do their bit to make sure that's the case. They know how to predict LibLabCon results and nobody is interested in a polling company that can't predict election results so they manipulate public opinion to keep the system they're comfortable with. The polling companies regularly ask respondents their opinion out the LibLabCon leaders to see which of them the public thinks is the least worst but they would never dream of putting Farage into the mix because he'd wipe the floor with Cameron, Clegg and Miliband and that would make things unpredictable. The last thing a polling company wants is an unpredictable election.

It would be nice to have a fair election without manipulation by the LibLabCon, the media and the polling companies but it's not going to happen. The establishment parties set the agenda, they have the money and they have the influence but they can't control the news or alter facts (well they can and do but not that successfully). If UKIP win elections they can't pretend we haven't. If UKIP is leading on local issues they can't pretend we're not. If UKIP is making the news rather than following it they can't pretend they're not being left behind. We have to keep working hard and contesting elections and working for our local communities and making sure that it it's UKIP that people see actually doing things rather than just talking about them. Most importantly we have to do this all the time, not just at election time like the LibLabCon. UKIP had been on the brink of success for a long time but the voting system and vested interests are working against us. But we can make that success happen from the ground up with local people doing things in their own communities where people can see what a positive difference UKIP can make for them. Actions speak louder than words and with enough action the LibLabCon, the media and the polling companies won't be able to say only Labour/Tories/Lib Dems can win here with any credibility.

UKIP 4% clear of Lib Dems in Survation poll

UKIP received another polling boost yesterday with the release of a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday.

Survation differs from other opinion pollsters in mentioning UKIP alongside the three old parties and has so far proven to be more accurate at predicting UKIP's performance than other polling companies as a result.

The poll shows that UKIP is well out in front of the Lib Dems and creeping up on the Tories.  Labour was in the lead with 36.6%, the Tories were second with 25.8%, UKIP third on 11.5% and some minority party called the Lib Dems on 7.4%.

Almost 6 out of 10 of the people Survation surveyed think Greece should abandon the €uro and return to the drachma and that Germany should not fund another Greek bailout.  More than three quarters of those surveyed think Greece will leave the €uro.  Almost 4 in 10 think the €urozone will break up (nearly 5 in 10 say it won't) and 4 in 10 think the EU would be better off if it happened (3 in 10 think it would be worse).  4 in 10 think the UK would be better off if the €urozone breaks up whilst 3 in 10 think we would be worse off.  Half of people asked think that the EU will survive a break-up of the €urozone.

Opinion is split on the subject of the UK leaving the EU with 45.4% saying no and 43.8% saying yes whilst 10.8% don't know.  This is much closer than other polls which usually show a clear majority in favour of leaving.  Looking at the regional split, it is most likely London and Scotland skewing the figures.  It's a shame Survation didn't extend their policy of including UKIP with the three old parties to the respective party leaders because it would have been interesting to see how Nigel Farage compares to the three pro-EU leaders - I suspect that he would have come out top in most of the questions.

UKIP on 11% in Survation poll

A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday has UKIP level pegging with the Lib Dems on 11%.

The survey will make dismal reading for all three LibLabCon leaders: 68% think "we're all in this together" doesn't apply to ministers, 64% think Cameron is nepotistic, 42% think Ed Miliband is nepotistic (30% don't), more people would rather have dinner with George Galloway than Ed Miliband and Boris Johnson is three times more popular than any of the party leaders as a dinner party guest.

A couple of weeks ago, Survation had UKIP on 8% and the Lib Dems on 11%.  UKIP is making gains but it's not at the expense of the Lib Dems whose share of the vote has stagnated.  Comparing the latest figures with those from Survation's poll in March, UKIP's gain has mainly come at Labour's expense who have dropped from 39% to 35%.

UKIP on 8% in Survation/Daily Mail poll

Polling company Survation has UKIP firmly in fourth place on 8%, just 3% behind the Lib Dems.

The poll for the Daily Mail isn't available on the Survation website yet so we don't know whether this is a backlash against the so-called "granny tax", the EU attacks on the city with the GLA elections looming or just a continuation of UKIP's excellent polling performance in the last year or so.  Votes for "other" amount to only 11%.

Survation and Angus Reid recognise UKIP's place in mainstream politics and its consistent polling results and put the party on a par with the LibLabCon, leaving only YouGov in the major polling companies that persist in maintaining the myth of the three party state.

More on this when the data tables are available.

UKIP polling 11% in Survation poll

A Survation poll for the Daily Star on Sunday has UKIP on 11% - much higher than the 7-8% that the other polling companies have us on.

Survation is the polling company that successfully predicted the result of the Meopham North council by-election in October and had the most accurate prediction of all the polling companies for the Barnsley by-election in March.

For the full set of results check out Survation's website - they make very interesting reading indeed and if they translate into actual vote shares in the next general election we could be looking at double figure numbers of UKIP MPs.

Survation predicts second place for Meoplham North

A by-election is due to be held in Meopham North tomorrow and polling company Survation predicts that UKIP candidate Geoffrey Clark will come second, beating Labour by 6% in the pre-election polling.

Survation were the only polling company to come close to predicting the result of the Barnsley by-election in March this year when UKIP got its best ever by-election result with Jane Collins coming second.

There are some encouraging numbers in the polling results which you can read on the Survation website.