Sunday 14 November 2010

YouGov confirms UKIP closing gap on the Lib Dems

Via Independence Home (newly relaunched, incidentally), YouGov has UKIP in 4th place on voting intentions at 4%, only 6% behind the Lib Dems.

The survey results are actually quite interesting.  4% of Conservative voters disapprove of the ConDem government, 24% of Lib Dem voters disapprove.  UKIP's support is spread evenly across the social brackets, whereas the Tories and Lib Dems are for ABC1's (upper/middle class) and Labour for C2DE's (working class).  UKIP is the only major party with even support across the social spectrum.

Most of UKIP's support is in the south and north of England, excluding London.  Support is at its lowest in London where our immigration policy isn't particularly well received amongst the large immigrant population and in Scotland where our anti-devolution policies, right of centre leaning and euroscepticism don't resonate that well with the mostly pro-devolution, socialist, europhile Scots.  The figures for the English midlands are skewed somewhat by being lumped in with Wales.

This survey firmly puts UKIP in fourth place amongst all the UK parties but it's not all good news.  Plaid Cymru and the SNP are on 2% despite only contesting elections in Scotland and Wales which only account for about 12% of the population between them.  While we continue to oppose devolution, we will continue to lose out to the SNP and Plaid Cymru and one day, even the English Democrats.  UKIP voters are also predominantly elderly, with support amongst the 18-24 age bracket swinging in favour of the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

All in all, this is reassuring stuff but it further highlights the need for UKIP to adopt a sensible and popular policy on devolution.  It's all well and good going toe to toe with the LibLabCon but we have to keep an eye on who's sneaking up on us.