Survation predicts 16 seats for UKIP

UKIP could win 16 seats in May according to a Survation poll for the Mirror.

The poll puts the Conservatives on 31%, Labour on 30% and UKIP on 23%. The Lib Dems lead the minor parties on 7%, the SNP are on 5% and the Greens are on 3%.

Despite polling less than a third of UKIP's projected share of the vote, the analysis suggests that the Lib Dems would win 27 seats compared to 16. The first past the post system really should have been thrown out by now and replaced with a system that reflects how people actually vote.

The seats they predict turning purple are:

• Waveney
• Wyre Forest
• Rother Valley
• Plymouth Moor View
• Walsall North
• St Austell and Newquay
• Dudley North
• Camborne and Redruth
• Cannock Chase
• Great Grimsby
• Great Yarmouth
• Heywood and Middleton
• Thanet South
• Rochester and Strood
• Thurrock
• Clacton

The polling analysis shows that UKIP threatens Labour and the Conservatives in equal measures. UKIP are predicted to take 7 seats off the Conservatives, 6 off Labour, 1 off the Lib Dems and hold the 2 seats that already have UKIP MPs.