Angela Merkel is having a bad day

Angela Merkel has suffered a series of setbacks this weekend, first losing her favourite poodle in the French presidential election, then facing a challenge to her authority in Greece and finally a poor result for coalition allies Free Democrats has put her coalition's control of the Schleswig-Holstein region in jeopardy.

Poor Angela really isn't having a good time at the moment but on the bright side, there are federal elections in Germany next year so she might not have to worry about it for much longer.

Greek election produces no workable majority

With 99.92% of the vote counted, there is no outright winner and things are so close that another election might be necessary to try and find some sort of consensus.

Syriza has gone from fifth to
second in 3 years

New Democracy and Pasok both suffered big losses whilst Syriza almost doubled their vote share and the new Independent Greeks party have taken over 10% of the vote in its maiden election.  The Communists failed to make any significant gains but the hard right Golden Dawn increased their vote from less than 0.3% to almost 7%, gaining 21 seats in the Greek Parliament in the process.

It is unlikely that any party will form a coalition with Golden Dawn so there are effectively 279 seats to play for in any coalition.  Maintaining the current New Democracy/Pasok coalition would produce a coalition with 149 seats - two short of an absolute majority but an effective majority of nine if Golden Dawn are taken out of the equation.  Dimar is ideologically close to Pasok so a three-way ND/Pasok/Dimar coalition is a possibility.

A right wing coalition of New Democracy and Independent Greeks would produce a coalition with 141 seats - ten short of an absolute majority but an effective majority of one without Golden Dawn's seats.  A left wing coalition of Syriza, Pasok, KKE and Dimar would produce a coalition with 138 seats - thirteen short of an absolute and effective majority.

The support of Golden Dawn, with its 21 seats, could be the key to forming any minority coalition.

Pasok/ND coalition takes a battering in the polls

Results of flooding in for the Greek elections and as expected, Pasok and New Democracy have taken a particularly brutal battering.

The current largest party, Pasok, is currently in third place behind the left wing coalition party, Syriza.  New Democracy is clinging tenuously to the lead, probably more by virtue of being the only established right wing party in Greece than because they're doing something right.  Independent Greeks and the Communist Party (KKE) are in fourth and fifth with the hardline Golden Dawn in sixth and newcomers, Democratic Left (Dimar), in seventh.

As it stands, with Laos and Ecologist Greens just shy of the 3% required to get a seat in the Greek Parliament (Laos is being punished for agreeing to join the last coalition before changing its mind), it would take a coalition of all of the opposition parties to keep Pasok and New Democracy from forming a coalition.  Such a coalition would probably spell the end for Greece's involvement in the €uro and maybe even in the EU - something that the Greeks should be hoping for as the only way for them to get themselves out of their current mess.

Whoever ends up forming a government in Greece next week, one thing is for certain: the Greek parliament is going to be full of extremists.  They'll have representation from the Stalinist KKE (Communist Party), the Greek equivalent of the BNP (Golden Dawn) and other minority far left parties.  It doesn't bode well for a stable Greece but they've been in a state of virtual anarchy for so long now, probably nobody would notice!

For an excellent near realtime map of how things stand in Greece as the results come in, check out this from Infographics.

Hollande closer to Cameron than Miliband

François Hollande has beaten Nicolas Sarkozy in the French presidential election, marking the start of some interesting times for the euro-fanatics.

Hollande is a committed europhile but he's a socialist whilst Angela Merkel is a conservative.  He wants to renegotiate France's relationship with Germany making it stronger but with a leftist tilt.

Looking at Hollande's manifesto, it all looks quite familiar:

Policy	Con/ Dem	Lab
Withdrawal from Afghanistan	X	X
Shared military	X
Separation of retail and investment banks	X	X
Unachievable "green" energy targets	X	X
Merge income tax and national insurance	X
Introduce punishing higher rate tax		X
Subsidised apprenticeships	X	X
Reducing corporation tax	X
More judges and police	X	X
Massive housebuilding scheme	X	X
Dropping retirement age
Same-sex marriage	X	X
Development funds for deprived areas	X	X
Pie in the sky plan to abolish deficit	X	X
Pandering to native minorities	X	X
More EU integration	X	X

On major policy issues, it seems the socialist Hollande has more in common with the Tories and Lib Dems than he does with his fellow socialists in the Labour Party.  Of course, there's barely a fag paper between the LibLabCon parties when it comes to anything important and the Tories have lurched to the left in recent years so it's hardly surprising.

Rumours abound that Hollande's election could drive a wedge between France and Germany that will bring the EU and the €uro crashing down round van Rumpy-Pumpy's ears but in reality it's unlikely to make all that much difference.  Eight out of ten laws in the UK come from the EU but it's even higher in France as they're in the single currency and Shengen.  Heads of state for EU member states mainly oversee the implementation of EU laws, it doesn't make much difference what colour their rosette is and Hollande is a europhile so don't expect any opposition to greater EU integration.

Greeks go to the polls today

Greeks have gone to the polls today, bringing to an end 5 months of EU suzerainty under the Brussels-appointed economist, Lucas Papademos.

The vote is expected to be split significantly by a myriad of predominantly left wing anti-austerity parties started by rebel MPs from the establishment parties who all supported the EU-imposed austerity measures that have devastated the country.

Opinion polling has been banned in the run-up to the election but the last lot of polling conducted showed both PASOK and New Democracy set to take a drubbing in the election.  The ironic thing is, the level of opposition to the Greek government and EU austerity will probably save the establishment parties because there are so many new opposition parties vying for the protest vote that most of them will struggle to get enough votes to get MPs elected.

Here's a prediction: in the next few days we will see a PASOK-New Democracy minority government formed.  Such a coalition will be necessary to impose the EU's will on Greece, protect the €uro and keep collaborator politicians in power.  A minority government or rainbow coalition would be too fragile to guarantee the passage of new austerity measures in June and a pro-EU and pro-€uro government in perpetuity so the two will be forced together through internal pressure and pressure from the EU and IMF.

Fresh Choice was the wrong choice

Thursday's performance in London was pretty disappointing with mayoral candidate, Lawrence Webb, gaining only 2% of the vote and the party failing to hit the 5% mark required for a seat on the London Assembly.  But what went wrong?

The general consensus is that having "Fresh Choice for London" on the ballot papers was the reason behind the unexpectedly low result for UKIP in London and the consensus is probably right.  The UKIP name is well known now and upwards of 1 in 10 people told pollsters that they would vote for the party.  On average it was actually 14% of people that voted UKIP so the polls underestimated the purple vote.

London bucked the trend though with less than 5% in the London-wide vote and 2% in the mayoral election.  The London mayoral election is like a Westminster election so the 2%, whilst disappointingly low, isn't particularly unusual.  But the sub-5% GLA vote is and it can only be down to the absence of UKIP's name on the ballot paper.

The decision to have "Fresh Choice of London" on the ballot papers instead of UKIP was a mistake.  Not just the slogan but actually asking for it - someone was told to fill out the papers with the wrong information and because the papers were filed at the last minute, it was too late to try and do something about it.

Some party activists who helped with the campaign in London are understandably unhappy with the "Fresh Choice for London" cock-up and some have called for whoever was responsible to be sacked.  As unnecessary as the mistake was, there's really no need to sack anyone.  There are lessons to be learnt from the London campaign but there's no need for any sackings.  Mistakes happen and election prospects go unrealised; as long as the mistakes are accepted and lessons have been learnt, we need to start working on the 2015 election campaign and consolidating the massive boost we received at the ballot box this week.

Some analysis of yesterday's election results

UKIP had some great results in yesterday's elections with over 130 second places and UKIP on 9 councillors.

Now, comparing 9 councillors to Labour's 2,158 or the Tories' 1,005 it looks pretty dire.  Even comparing it to the Lib Dems' 431 it looks poor but the ConDems have just lost 741 councillors and control of 13 councils between them.  Those 130 second places means UKIP has beaten two out of the three old parties 130 times.  There have been a string of third places to compliment the seconds which means that UKIP has beaten one of the three old parties.

It isn't all good news of course - a few sitting UKIP councillors have been lost in Labour landslides and London mayoral candidate Lawrence Webb is sitting on a pretty disappointing 2% of first preference votes.  Second preferences should see the UKIP vote rally but with the widespread voter fraud in London bumping up the Labour Party vote, it's not going to make a material different to the end result.  Sadly UKIP has missed out on getting a seat on the GLA despite all the early indications that we would win at least one, possibly two.  It's a shame but it's impossible to compete with Labour's army of Bangladeshi ghost voters.

Regardless of these minor disappointments, UKIP's vote share has more than tripled in many places and is only 2% behind the Lib Dems.  The UKIP candidate for Salford's elected mayor came third which is a great result and the Mayor of UKIP-controlled Ramsay took over 60% of the vote proving that UKIP can run a council successfully and with the confidence of residents.

The First Past the Post system has frustrated democracy once again - almost as many people voted UKIP as the Lib Dems yet the Lib Dems have got 48 times as many councillors as UKIP.  We've had our once in a generation chance to change the electoral system and the career politicians who have so much to gain from it managed to protect the status quo so we have to persevere with the antiquated FPTP system.

The Tories are veering between delusional dismissal of UKIP and spitting feathers at how UKIP cost them the votes they have a god-given right to.  If only the Tories would stop splitting the UKIP vote, we could have seen real change yesterday.

Some highlights of the election so far

Sadly last night's announcement on the Basildon Council website about UKIP winning three seats was a bit premature ... and wrong!  In the end, Basildon Council had declared 15 results in total despite only have 4 seats contested.

Moving on from that minor disappointment though, UKIP has made gains at the expense of the Tories, the Lib Dems and Labour (the former two more so as expected).  Some of the highlights include: gained one councillor in North East Lincs, one in Thurrock (taking the total to three) and one in Vale of Glamorgan; turned a Tory majority of 700 into 25 in Great Yarmouth in a ward that has never had a UKIP candidate before; a great second in Hetton (Lab 1628, UKIP 1363, LD 154); second or third in all seats in Plymouth and all except one in Tandridge; two second places out of four wards contested in Runymede.

Only one mayoral election has declared so far - Liverpool - and the UKIP candidate came 8th out of 12 on first preference votes.  Second preference would have been the interesting one to see but the Labour candidate got over 59% of the vote so they weren't counted.  Three elected mayor referenda results have been declared so far and all three have said no.

UKIP wins three seats in Basildon?

The first few UKIP results are in and they're looking great.

UKIP candidates have secured some very close second places and it appears three UKIP councillors have been elected in Basildon. Confirmation is being sought on this.

UKIP candidates are leading the political revolution tonight, we can expect more successes as the results trickle in through the early hours (although possibly not on here as some of us have to work tomorrow)!

Electoral Fraud in London

The MP for Enfield North, Nick de Bois, has cross-checked a list of 100 illegal immigrants who've asked for his help fighting deportation and found that 21 of them are on the electoral register.

Police are already investigating voter fraud in Tower Hamlets where one in seven postal votes cast in a recent by-election were fraudulent and where the police were investigating massive postal vote fraud in 2010.  The fraud always benefits Labour and in 2010, sitting Labour councillors were implicated with their flats apparently housing large numbers of adults who all registered to vote a few weeks before the election.

Either postal and proxy voting needs to be controlled properly to eliminate fraud or Labour's vote needs to be automatically decreased by 20% across the country to take into account the electoral fraud.

UKIP level with Lib Dems again in Yougov poll

Today's YouGov results are just out and UKIP is level pegging with the Lib Dems on 8% today.

Labour have a 10% lead over the Tories on the eve of tomorrow's important elections on 43%, the Tories are on 33% and UKIP and the Lib Dems are joint third on 8%.

The gap in London has closed again with the Lib Dems on 9% and UKIP on 8%.  UKIP is out-polling the Lib Dems in the south of England and north of England polling regions and level in the midlands/Wales polling region.  Only Scotland is saving the Lib Dems from dropping a couple of points against UKIP.

This is great news ahead of tomorrow's election.

Be part of a political revolution tomorrow: vote UKIP

Tomorrow is election day for half the country and the biggest test of the ConDem coalition's popularity so far.

Labour will be the biggest winners tomorrow on sheer numbers (but not in the London mayoral election) but UKIP are on track to cause the biggest upset, consistently polling equal to, or 1% above or below, the Lib Dems for weeks in every opinion poll.

A vote for the LibLabCon tomorrow is a vote for the status quo, for the same tired old politics, sleaze and corruption.  Be part of a political revolution tomorrow: vote UKIP.

Pink News making up stories for Lib Dems

The LGBT website, Pink News, seems to have turned into Yellow News for the election, posting a false story claiming a UKIP campaigner had burnt a picture of Lib Dem mayoral candidate, Brian Paddick, in a homophobic act.

A UKIP spokeswoman has clarified, on the Politics Home website, that the "UKIP campaigner" in question isn't even a UKIP member but a gay man disillusioned with the Lib Dems.

There is still no retraction or correction on the Pink News website which still carries the story uncorrected under the headline "UKIP campaigners burn picture of gay mayoral candidate Brian Paddick in Soho".

It is, of course, possible that the writer in question hasn't seen the corrections or that the editors haven't seen the corrections or whoever looks after the Pink News twitter account hasn't seen the corrections posted on Twitter but even if that is the case and the story was posted in good faith, what is it about burning a picture of a politician the day before an election they're taking part in that warrants that headline?  Why would burning a picture of Boris Johnson be ok but burning a picture of Brian Paddick is a homophobic hate crime because he's gay?

Well, according to some of the commenters on the Pink News website, the fact that it happened in Soho proves it was deliberately homophobic.  The fact that the person burning the picture is gay himself (which the article on Pink News acknowledges) isn't reason enough for it to have happened in Soho, it must be a deliberate attack on homosexuals.  The fact that Brian Paddick is a politician contesting an election tomorrow and the "campaigner" is surrounded by posters for a rival political party isn't reason enough for burning a picture of him, it must be a deliberate homophobic attack.  The fact that the "campaigner" is gay doesn't mean burning the picture is likely to be a political statement, it must have been homophobic.  One comment even says that the "campaigner" in question can't be gay because he's Asian - feigning outrage at supposed homophobia whilst making a sterotypical comment accusing muslims of being intolerant.  You can't make this stuff up (well, Pink News probably could)!

One thing that doesn't seem to have been noticed is that - assuming the "campaigner" in question doesn't have three arms - it isn't actually him that's set fire to the picture, he's actually holding it while someone else is setting it on fire.

Email address for election results

We have set up an email address to collect election results for Thursday's elections.

If you are at an election count or get news of election results, send us an email at elections@bloggers4ukip.org.uk.

As well as us, the email goes to Young Independence and other UKIP bloggers so you can do your bit in spreading the good election news!

UKIP on 8% in YouGov poll

UKIP are 1% behind the Lib Dems again in tonight's YouGov poll on 8%.

The Lib Dem vote in London has rallied with them on 15% with UKIP dropping to 5%.  UKIP and the Lib Dems are level pegging in the south of England and the midlands/Wales polling regions and ahead of them in the north of England.  The Greens have jumped to 6% in London, perhaps indicative of the BBC's shameful electioneering on their behalf.