Thursday, 23 February 2012

UKIP on 4% in YouGov poll

YouGov's latest poll has UKIP in fourth place again but with a wider than usual gap between UKIP and the Lib Dems.

Because YouGov only likes to promote the LibLabCon, some maths is needed to correct their inflated headline voting intentions from this:

Con: 39%
Lab: 38%
LD: 10%
Other: 14%

To this:

Con: 30.4%
Lab: 29.6%
LD: 7.8%
UKIP: 4%
SNP/PC: 3%
Green: 3%
BNP: 2%

The percentages don't quite add up because YouGov also round up the LibLabCon votes but without the source data and methodology (which YouGov don't publish) this is as close as you're going to get.  UKIP has dropped a bit against the Lib Dems since Sunday for no apparent reason but it's bucking the trend and unlikely to reflect a real downturn in UKIP support.