Tory membership could be as low as 59,000

The Conservative Party's membership may have dropped to as low as 59,000 according to ConservativeHome.  This would put the Conservative Party's membership at less than double UKIP's.

The Sunday Times and the Telegraph have both done some digging into the Conservative Party's returns to the Electoral Commission and found that only about 3 in 5 accounting units (groups of branches in the Conservative Party's organisational structure) filed returns and of those only about a quarter returned membership figures.

If the Conservative Party's membership has dropped that low (from over a quarter of a million when David Cameron took over as leader 8 years ago) then it's frankly astounding.  It would mean that their councillors made up 15% of their whole membership and that doesn't include parish councillors.  They probably have 4 or 5 times as many parish councillors as they do for the councils above so even allowing for perhaps a quarter of them being double jobbing councillors, as much as 60% of their membership could be made up of their councillors.

Even if the Conservative Party's membership was as high as 100,000 - which appears to be a psychological barrier for the membership - then Conservative councillors could still make up as much as 35% of their total membership.

The youth wing of the Tories, Conservative Future, is struggling to keep and motivate members whilst previously active members are leaving in droves either for UKIP or just turning their backs on politics altogether.  Even with the most optimistic estimate of 100,000 members, the Conservative Party must be completely devoid of activists.

This councillor's not for turning

Conservative Home's Harry Phibbs had been emailing UKIP Councillors asking them to join the Conservative Party after Cameron's pathetic EU speech today.

Dear UKIP councillor,

As some of you know I edit the Local Government section of Conservative Home and would be interested in your reaction to David Cameron's speech this morning.

In particular if you feel that the offer of an in/out referendum on EU membership from the Conservatives means you feel Conservative victory at the General Election would be preferable to Labour victory and if so if you will consider joining the Conservatives. Or if not what would be required to persuade you to join.

I would like to write a blog with comments so please let me know if they are on the record or not for attribution.

Strangely, I didn't get this email despite being a UKIP councillor and even being on Conservative Home's mailing list.  Perhaps their generous benefactor, Lord Ashcroft, has a target list of UKIP councillors as well as constituencies?

In case you're wondering Harry, I'd rather poke my eyes out with a spoon that join the Conservatives.  I've never voted Tory in my life and I certainly don't intend to start just because David Cameron has made another empty promise of an EU referendum after the next election that he won't win on the ridiculous premise that he would somehow renegotiate our relationship with the EU when the only legal basis for doing so is invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which gives notice that we intend to leave.  David Cameron has made it very clear yet again - as he did before the Conservative Party membership voted for him as leader - that he is committed to the UK's continued membership of the EU and clearly isn't going to entertain the idea of invoking Article 50.  There is very little difference between Labour and the Conservatives and whichever of those two authoritarian, economically illiterate, europhile parties manages to secure a majority in 2015 really doesn't matter because without UKIP MPs in Parliament this country isn't going to get back on its feet.

Extracts from Cowardly Cameron's cancelled EU speech

Conservative Home has extracts from Cowardly Cameron's cancelled EU speech.  They can be summed up in one word: weak.

Every time someone votes for UKIP a puppy dies

I want Britain to stay in Europe… “I come here as British Prime Minister with a positive vision for the future of the European Union. A future in which Britain wants, and should want, to play a committed and active part.”

Britain doesn't want to play a part in the European Union.  Most people want to leave.

…but Europe must change. “I want to speak to you today with urgency and frankness about the European Union and how it must change – both to deliver prosperity and to retain the support of its peoples.”

It's the EU, not Europe.  The EU won't change for the better, it will continue to diverge at an alarming rate from the national interests of all member states (apart from Germany of course) and especially ours.

Yes, it really must change. “More of the same will not secure a long-term future for the eurozone. More of the same will not see the European Union keeping pace with the new powerhouse economies. More of the same will not bring the European Union any closer to its citizens. More of the same will just produce more of the same – less competitiveness, less growth, fewer jobs. And that will make our countries weaker, not stronger.”

The EU is an anti-competitive, protectionist, despotic state.  It will never compete with emerging economies because it is insular and above all a political project, not a trade one.

The three challenges facing Europe. “There are always voices saying, ‘Don’t ask the difficult questions’. But it’s essential for Europe – and for Britain – that we do because there are three major challenges confronting us today. … First, the problems in the eurozone are driving fundamental change in Europe. Second, there is a crisis of European competitiveness, as other nations across the world soar ahead. And third, there is a gap between the EU and its citizens which has grown dramatically in recent years and which represents a lack of democratic accountability and consent that is – yes – felt particularly acutely in Britain.”

He means the EU, not Europe.  The collapse of the €uro is driving change the wrong way - towards full fiscal and political union which is a disaster for democracy.

Britain could leave if these challenges aren’t overcome. “If we don't address these challenges, the danger is that Europe will fail and the British people will drift towards the exit,”

Europe can't fail, it's a huge landmass.  The EU will fail though and if we don't get out in time we will get dragged down with it.

Although, again, I don’t want that. “I want the European Union to be a success and I want a relationship between Britain and the EU that keeps us in it.”

Yes Dave, we know you're a committed europhile and will do whatever it takes to make sure we stay in.

And more on the democratic challenge. “There is a growing frustration that the EU is seen as something that is done to people rather than acting on their behalf, and this is being intensified by the very solutions required to resolve the economic problems … People are increasingly frustrated that decisions taken further and further away from them mean their living standards are slashed through enforced austerity or their taxes are used to bail out governments on the other side of the continent.”

It's all part of the plan Dave, all of it.  As expected, Cameron has committed himself to our continued membership of the EU and once again thrown away the only bargaining chip we have.  Conspicuous in its absence from this europhile drivel are details of his pinky promise in/in referendum.  Eurosceptic Tories will be bitterly disappointed at what was evidently going to be a fawning, pro-EU speech.  Confirming the worst kept secret - that the EU referendum won't have an "out" option or will at least contain two "in" options to dilute the "out" vote - would tip huge numbers of them over the edge.

Tory fantasists reveal plans to deal with threat of UKIP

Ten senior Tories have told ConservativeHome their fantastical ideas for dealing with the threat to their party from UKIP ... which of course doesn't exist according to David Cameron who told his party last month that UKIP are "a complete waste of time".

Angie Bray MP says they should repatriate powers from the EU whilst outgoing Corby MP Louise Mensch has this hilarious contribution:

Then the referendum should offer three choices. (Can you see UKIP's fox cowering in the corner? We're about to shoot it.) 1. Leave the EU altogether. 2. Demand new membership terms (as listed) and leave if we don't get them. 3. Remain as we are. Can anybody doubt a massive victory for point two?

I could make a comment about dogs hunting foxes but that would be rude.  Has anyone figured out yet why the SNP's referendum on Scottish Independence must have only In/Out and no "renegotiation" option because that's too unequivocal and confusing for voters but an EU referendum must have a "renegotiation" option?

Head of Progressive Conservatism Project, Max Wind-Cowie, says that the Tories aren't divided over "Europe" (he means the EU) and says that UKIP has "wildly opposed conservative and libertarian instincts".  An interesting choice of phrase considering the Conservatives are generally supposed to be ... well, conservative, as the name suggests.

Failed wannabe MP Dominic Schofield says they should renegotiate our relationship with the EU and fight UKIP on the ground with the message "vote purple, get red".

"Giving attention to self harmers merely
gives them justification for their abuse"

This might work with people who don't think the Tories are equally as bad as Labour and who are naive enough to think that voting for someone you don't want to stop someone else you don't want from winning is preferable to voting for the person you want.  Dominic Schofield's clearly doesn't think much of his prospective constituents.

Former Labour, now Tory, social media "expert" Luke Bozier says there should be no referendum on the EU and tax cuts will neutralise UKIP whilst Andrew Boff (Conservative London Assembly member) has this delightful comment:

Giving attention to self-harmers merely gives them justification for their abuse. We should offer a referendum (tomorrow, preferably) because it's the right thing to do, not because we want to deal with attention seekers.

Insulting 19,000 UKIP members and making light of mental health issues in the process.  We have one of the highest rates of self harming in Europe.  Way to go Mr Boff.

Tory-supporting "think tank" Centre for Policy Studies wonk, Ryan Bourne, says they should renegotiate our membership after the next election and David Nuttall MP, Chairman of the Better Off Out group of MPs and Peers, is the only one that has something vaguely sensible to say but still doesn't think we should have a referendum until after the next election.

Syed Kamall MEP says they should "show how UKIP never engage seriously in the European Parliament" whilst Tory researcher Paul Abbott displays a disturbing lack of understanding about the EU, talking about the European Court of Justice and Human Rights even though they're not actually EU institutions and claiming that last year's EU Act means that EU law only has primacy if Parliament wants it to despite it being a treaty obligation which is governed by international law.

It's pretty clear that the Tories refuse to listen to the majority of their membership or voters and that they hold the electorate in contempt.  It's amusing to see them simultaneously dismissing UKIP as being no threat and enough of a threat to have a masterplan for dealing with the UKIP threat to their party.

Desperate Tories call for desperate measures

A "rebel" Tory conference has been organised by Windsor Conservatives in association with ConservativeHome editor Tim Montgomerie on the same day as the UKIP Conference in Birmingham.

The "Conservative Renewal Conference" is being billed as a grassroots initiative but the speakers list is a who's who of media-friendly establishment Tories and of course the chair of the conference, Tim Montgomerie, is paid to work for the Tories.  Six Tory MPs, three Tory MEPs, a Tory AM and assorted Tory councillors, staffers and hangers-on is less grassroots and more gooseberry bush.

A cynical person might think that Montgomerie had organised the conference to coincide with the UKIP conference to try and attract disaffected Tories who might otherwise go to the UKIP conference and see first hand why so many Tories are defecting.

Desperate times call for desperate Tories

The editor of Conservative Home, Tim Montgomerie, has penned a desperate appeal for eurosceptics to stay with the Conservative & European Unionist Party.

Reconnecting with the grassroots, apparently

In his article he points out that 81 Tory MPs voted for a referendum on EU membership and suggests that this is the political event of 2011.  Just 81 out of 305 Tory MPs voted for a referendum, the other 224 voted against our national interest and the wishes of the majority of the electorate.  Wee Willy Vague himself said that the EU was undermining our sovereignty and that we need a law to stop them doing it but he and the rest of the europhile Tory leadership pulled out all the stops to make sure that we didn't get a say in our membership.  Just  a quarter of Tory MPs defied the whips and we are supposed to vote for a pro-EU, illiberal, high tax, big state Conservative Party on the strength of the record of 81 MPs in one vote?  You're having a laugh Montgomerie!

Montgomerie also thinks that under the rabidly europhile leadership of Martin Callanan, the Tory MEP group in the EU Parliament has reconnected with the grassroots.  This group of MEPs has voted for EU regulation of the City of London, for EU control of national budgets, for EU supervision of banks and for the EU arrest warrant amongst others.  Whose grassroots have they reconnected with?  Certainly not their own.

Once again we are told that UKIP are splitting the Tory vote and preventing euroscepticism from triumphing but UKIP is the eurosceptic party, not the Tories.  It is the Tories that are splitting the UKIP vote and preventing true eurosceptics from entering government, not the other way round.

Tim Montgomerie is way off the mark as usual - a party propaganda merchant through and through.  Roger Helmer made the right decision in joining UKIP, as did all the other Tories (and there are a lot of them, especially in the last year or two) that have defected to UKIP.  There is more to UKIP than opposing the EU and more behind the high profile Tory defections of the likes of Roger Helmer, Stuart Wheeler, the Lords Hesketh, Pearson and de Broke and Viscount Monckton than the continued Tory betrayals over the EU.

UKIP is attracting supporters from all parties and both ends of the political spectrum, not because they oppose the EU but because they believe in UKIP.

Tory "Mainstream Euroscepticism" means ever closer union

A group of 14 recently elected Conservative MPs have written to the Financial Times to set out what Conservative Home calls "mainstream euroscepticism" which basically amounts to continuing membership of the EU, ever-closer union and a refusal to listen to the majority of the general public when they say they want out of the corrupt EUSSR.

We have to rely on the Tory chief apologist, Tim Montogerie, for snippets of the letter as it's behind the Financial Times paywall (according to the Chair of the Propaganda Committee Montgomerie the letter was sent to the FT to show how important it was) but from what he says their "mainstream euroscepticism" can be summed up as:

• We must take the taxpayers’ side in resisting further bail-outs;
• Liberalisation of trade;
• The principle of subsidiarity;
• Wholesale reduction of the waste for which the European Commission is responsible;
• Above all we must start getting some value in return for the significant sums that UK taxpayers contribute to the EU’s budget

You just couldn't make this up.  This "mainstream euroscepticism" is more eurosceptic than the party line remember but it's basically a re-hash of Wee Willy Vague's "in Europe, not run by Europe" rhetoric that means bugger all, as evidenced by the string of EU power-grabs since the ConDem's came to power.

There is a suggestion that this group - who claim they could have got 100 MPs to sign the letter if it wasn't for those pesky kids they weren't too worried about their jobs as private secretaries to other MPs and they'd had more time - are in some way risking the wrath of David Cameron which is, of course, a nonsense.  They're toeing the party line, refusing to even contemplate leaving the EU as most voters want.  Tim Montgomerie also seems quite impressed (relieved?) that up to 100 Tory MPs could be sympathetic to the idea of "mainstream euroscepticism".  Which is all well and good but why do they think 100 Tory MPs putting their names to a letter calling for the UK to remain a member of the EU despite a large majority of the electorate wanting out is any better than 14 of them signing one?

There is only one party espousing "mainstream euroscepticism" and it's certainly not the Tories.  Having the view that we should leave the EU is apparently "impossibilism" (another "Montgomerieism") and not something that has a place in the europhile Conservative Party.  There's only one way we will every get out of the EU and that's with UKIP MPs fighting for withdrawal in Westminster.

Lidington provokes dissent from rank and file Tories on EU Bill

ConservativeHome bravely published an article "Why every Conservative can be proud of the European Union bill" from the Minister for the EU, David Lidington yesterday.

The chances of getting a referendum
out of the EU Bill? About this much.

It was brave because the bill is about as popular as a dog turd sandwich amongst rank and file Tories and Lidington trying to sell it as "the most radical piece of legislation on how we handle the EU since Britain joined the then EEC in 1973" was never going to go down well but I don't think anyone expected it to go quite as badly as it has.

There are too many comments to count - there must be a couple of hundred by now - and I can't find one single comment agreeing with Lidington.  What there are lots of are comments from Tories saying how fed up they are of the europhile Tory leadership and people like David Lidington, William Hague and David Cameron insulting their intelligence by telling them that the EU Bill is protection from the assaults on our sovereignty by the European Empire.

It makes you wonder how the Tories have managed to keep as many members as they have judging by the number of unhappy people on ConHome.