EU election results (updated 1:05)

It's been a great night for UKIP so far with just three regions declared and six UKIP MEPs elected, representing a 100% increase across those three regions.

• UKIP has secured its first MEP in the North East of England euroregion - Jonathan Arnott.
• In the East of England euroregion, Roger Helmer was re-elected and Margot Parker joins him as a second MEP.
• In the South West of England, UKIP has two MEPs - William Dartmouth and Julia Reed.
• In Yorkshire & the Humber, UKIP has gone from 1 MEP to 3 - Amjid Bashir, Jane Collins and Mike Hookem.
• UKIP has also kept its MEP in Wales with Nathan Gill elected to replace John Bufton.
• In the North West of England, UKIP has gone from 1 to 3 MEPs - Paul Nuttall is re-elected and joined by Louise Bours and Steve Woolfe
• Sky are reporting that from the figures so far, UKIP has gained a seat in Scotland
• UKIP has gone from 2 to 3 MEPs in the West Midlands - Jill Seymour, Jim Carver and Bill Etheridge
• In the South East of England, UKIP has 4 MEPs elected - Nigel Farage, Janice Atkinson, Diane James and Ray Finch
• London is late declaring due to a recount but we don't expect any surprises

Lib Dem told to expect loss of all their MEPs

The Lib Dems have been warned by their advisers that they are at risk of losing all 11 of their MEPs in next month's EU elections.

Leaked briefing documents say that coming out of the elections with no MEPs is a realistic option.

One Lib Dem told the Telegraph the idea of them losing all their MEPs was "nonsense" but another said "it is looking like an absolute bloodbath". Lib Dem President, Tim Farron, seems to be resigned to the fact that the party is going to be wiped out in the EU elections.

On an entirely unrelated note, we've just discovered a Tumblr site devoted to pictures of Nick Clegg Looking Sad complete with humorous captions. Sadly it hasn't been updated for a year but perhaps the look on his face as their MEP gradually drops down to zero will inspire the author to revive it.

Public back UKIP election posters

Hat-tip: Guido

Full Fact verify UKIP poster facts

The Full Fact website have fact checked UKIP's EU election posters and have confirmed that three of the four posters are correct but can't confirm the fourth.

Full Fact agreed that research shows that EU immigration affects jobs and wages, they couldn't find a definitive answer on the percentage of laws that originate from the EU and they agreed that we give the EU £55m per day.

The Tories have fared rather less well with their EU election broadcast with Full Fact picking holes in half of what they say.

UKIP 2014 EU Election Broadcast

EU election campaign billboards unveiled

UKIP's EU election campaign has stepped up a gear today with the unveiling of a nationwide billboard campaign.

One of the billboards (which have been paid for by self-made millionaire businessman Paul Sykes) has already sparked controversy amongst the loony left. No prizes for guessing which one ...

Green Party complains about UKIP being designated major party

Green MP being arrested for
public order offences

The whiny Greens are complaining that OFCOM have given UKIP major party status for the EU elections, meaning that UKIP will have to receive equal media coverage to the LibLabCon parties.

The Green Party has 2 MEPs and received less than half of UKIP's share of the vote in the last EU elections in 2009 so why would the Green Party expect to receive equal media coverage to the mainstream parties? Not because they're popular or because they expect to do as well as the mainstream parties but because they think they have better policies than the mainstream parties.

It is a decision influenced by what can be easily measured, polling figures, rather than considering the fact that the Green Party is the only party representing significant majorities of public opinion on issues ranging from re-nationalising the railways, to making the minimum wage a living wage to having a publicly owned and publicly run NHS.

The last thing a media regulator should be doing is forming opinions on political party policies. Election performance and opinion polls - facts, not opinions - are absolutely the right things to base a decision on. Just because the Green Party base their manifesto on unevidenced opinion doesn't mean OFCOM should.

YouGov predict a UKIP win in May

New polling by YouGov puts UKIP in second place for the EU elections behind Labour, the Tories in third place and the Lib Dems in fourth place facing the prospect of losing all of their MEPs.

Crucially, the president of YouGov, Peter Kellner, predicts that UKIP will win the EU elections based on this polling because support for UKIP always increases as the election gets closer. This is quite an endorsement of UKIP's prospects because Kellner is married to the EU's foreign minister, Baroness Ashton and takes every opportunity to suppress UKIP polling.

Mike Nattrass loses MEP de-selection case

Mike Nattrass MEP has lost his case against UKIP over his de-selection as an MEP.

Mike was due to retire in 2012 to give his replacement an opportunity to build up their profile with the electorate before the next election but changed his mind.  He subsequently put himself forward for re-selection this year but was turned down.  He says he was turned down unfairly, the judge said "politics isn't fair" and ordered him to pay £9,000 in costs.

The reason why Mike was de-selected hasn't been made public - not even to him - but is likely to be a result of his siding with Nikki Sinclaire when she was in open warfare with the party and for some time after she parted company with UKIP.

The crux of his legal complaint seems to be that the process was unfair.  In emails he and his supporters have sent to members he's cited the lack of a psychometric test for sitting MEPs as a reason why the process is unfair.  But not requiring sitting MEPs to undergo a psychometric test presumes that they've passed so that removes a barrier rather than adding one.  He also says that he wants the membership to decide who should stand and that's what the rules say but the rules were changed some time ago to give the NEC more control over the lists and the membership voted for those new rules.

When the regional lists were released I was surprised to find that Mike's name was missing but it was always a possibility given his recent history with the party which marred many years of hard work and dedication to the party and the eurosceptic cause.  I just can't see where the rules were broken or where Mike or any of the other MEPs were treated unfairly though.

Perhaps now the court case is finished the party's side of the story will be made public so members can take a balanced view on whether Mike was treated fairly.

Report calls for change in EU voting system to benefit Tories

A report by the London School of Economics and the Electoral Reform Society says that the Tories' best hope of beating UKIP in the EU elections next year is to change the voting system so that the electorate votes for people rather than parties.

Although people generally vote for parties rather than the person in local and Westminster elections, the vote is actually for the person.  In EU elections you vote for a party and the candidates are chosen by the party.

The Electoral Reform Society want to change the EU election voting system so that the electorate votes for a person rather than a party.  They argue that it's more democratic choosing the person you want rather than the having to vote for someone you don't want to be able to vote for someone you do.

They have a point and it probably would go in the Tories' favour because it means that plastic eurosceptics like Dan Hannan will be able to attract votes based on (for want of a better word) their own merit without being put at risk by the pro-EU stance of their party.

Voting for a person instead of a party would leave Cameron with a bit of a dilemma though.  It would be necessary for MEPs to promote themselves more as personalities like MPs do which will bring more attention to the number of europhile MEPs the Tories have.  Cameron is absolutely adamant that he doesn't want us to leave the EU but most voters don't share that opinion.  There will always be people who vote for the Tories just because they're Tories but those Tories that behave like eurosceptics will rise to the top and that will bring with it unwanted pressure to take a more eurosceptic stance.

This report will bring a glimmer of hope for ordinary Tories but a big dilemma for Cameron who will have to choose between changing the voting system to give the Tories more chance of beating UKIP or keeping the pro-EU bias in his party.

ComRes poll predicts EU election win for UKIP

A ComRes poll for Open Europe puts UKIP on 27% for the EU elections with Labour in second place on 23% and the Tories on 21%. The Lib Dems are a distant fourth with just 9%.

The same poll predicts 37% for Labour, 26% for the Tories and UKIP on 20% in a general election.  The Lib Dems are once again a distant fourth on 9%.

The poll also found that while 41% of people would vote to leave the EU with 37% voting to stay in, that would change to 47% voting to stay in and 32% voting to leave if significant powers could be repatriated from the EU.  Human nature will always favour the soft option, the compromise.  But as it's not possible to take power off the EU once you've given it to them without leaving the mythical "third way" isn't going to be an option.

Open Europe has tried to spin the poll as massive support for the EU as you would expect from a pro-EU think tank that campaigns for reform but really it's not.  Most people want to leave the EU and most would take the easy way out if it was possible which it's not.  Open Europe can spin it all they like but this isn't a positive poll for the europhiles.

Try again Daniel

Let me start by saying that I quite like Daniel Kawczysnki MP.  He's one of the few honest MPs and a genuinely hard working one at that.

But on the subject of voting reform he's got it quite wrong.  He clings on to FPTP - and understandably so as a sitting MP for a marginal constituency - despite its obvious failing in ignoring the wishes of most of the electorate and returning a government that has the support of little more than a quarter of the voting population.

But Daniel doesn't limit himself to being wrong on the principal of electoral reform, he's also wrong on why so many people don't bother voting in EU elections:

My hon. Friend mentioned the elections to the European Parliament. If we are going to change any voting system, surely it should be those elections, in which only 30% of the electorate turn up to vote, because they are very unhappy with how we vote for MEPs. Conversely, in our elections the turnout is 70%. Most people are happy with the way they elect us, but not with how they elect their representatives to the European Parliament.

As the Boiling Frog points out, EU parliament elections in the UK were held under FPTP until 1999 and the dismal turnout for EU elections has been comparably dismal since the first one in 1979.