Bookies for Bickley

With less than a week until voters go to the polls in Oldham West & Royton, the bookies are shortening odds for a UKIP win.

All but two of the online bookies tracked by the Odds Checker website are shortening odds on a UKIP victory and lengthening odds on a Labour win. Most bookies have UKIP around the 2/1 mark whilst Labour are still odds on at around 1/3.

There is no question that John Bickley can win Oldham West & Royton for UKIP. This once safe Labour seat is rapidly turning purple and while the bookies are pretty sure Labour will keep the seat, they're uncertain enough to keep UKIP's odds short in case they find themselves having to pay out.

Opinium have UKIP on 18%, YouGov on 16% and Mark Reckless is bookies favourite for Rochester

An opinion poll conducted by Opinium for the Observer newspaper puts Labour and the Conservatives level pegging on 33% each with UKIP on 18%.

The poll also found that 31% of people would consider voting UKIP in their constituency if they thought UKIP could win.

Opinium didn't get the ComRes memo and put UKIP in the "other" section again which, as ComRes showed a week ago, results in an artificially low projected vote share for UKIP.

Party	%
Conservative	33%
Labour	33%
UKIP	18%
Lib Dems	6%
Green	4%

A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times also finds the Conservatives and Labour level pegging on 33% with UKIP at 16%.

Party	%
Conservative	33%
Labour	33%
UKIP	16%
Lib Dems	7%
Green	6%

UKIP are currently favourites to win the Rochester & Strood by-election with bookies offering odds of 1/5 for Mark Reckless against 11/2 for the second favourite Conservative and the waste of space Lib Dems 1/10 to lose their deposit.

William Hill says UKIP 2/1 to gain an MP

Following the election of Lord Pearson as leader of UKIP, William Hill are now offering odds of 2/1 for UKIP to win one or more seats in the next general election.

The odds of Nigel Farage beating John Bercow in Buckingham have been shortened to 5/1.