Labour hold Oldham West & Royton

Despite the best efforts of John Bickley and his UKIP team, Labour managed to hold on to Oldham West & Royton in yesterday's by-election.

Despite the bookies getting twitchy, the election had already been won before election day thanks to Labour's postal voting machine which generated a massive 25% postal turnout.

UKIP's vote share was up 2.8%, Labour's was up 7.3%, the Lib Dems lost their deposit and the Tories dropped 9.6% of the vote since May. Overall turnout was down 19.3% from the general election.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	+/-
Jim McMahon	Labour	17,209	62.1%	+7.3%
John Bickley	UKIP	6,487	23.4%	+2.8%
James Daly	Conservatives	2,596	9.4%	-9.6%
Jane Brophy	Lib Dem	1,024	3.7%	0.0%
Simeon Hart	Green	249	0.9%	-1.0%
Sir Oink A-Lot	Monster Raving Loony	141	0.5%	N/A

Well done to John Bickley and his team for an excellent election campaign.

Men and women segregated at Labour meeting in Oldham

Pictures of a Labour Party campaign meeting organised by Labour Friends of Bangladesh in Oldham show the women and men clearly segregated.

The pictures were shared on Twitter by Labour MP Debbie Abrahams and immediately drew criticism with UKIP's candidate, John Bickley, who said:

How can it be acceptable in modern Britain that a political party that wishes to represent all the people, and in particular the various communities of Oldham, thinks that it's ok to segregate by gender?

This isn't a one-off either. Earlier this year man-hating female supremacist Harriet Harman defended a segregated Labour event in Birmingham saying it was better to have a segregated meeting than a men-only one.

IRA sympathiser John McDonnell tells Corbynistas UKIP is "an evil force"

Terrorist sympathising Maoist Labour MP, John McDonnell, has told a meeting of the recently-rebranded Corbyn for Leader campaign (now called Momentum) in Oldham that UKIP is "an evil force within our society".

In 2003, McDonnell called for "brave" IRA terrorists to be honoured for bringing "peace" to Northern Ireland. As far back as 1985 his local newspaper reported him saying that "gutless councillors" who refused to sit on a republican Labour Committee on Ireland should be kneecapped and that bombings were a legitimate way of bringing about a united Ireland.

He was threatened with expulsion by the Labour Party but was instead promoted onto influential committees and ended up being appointed as Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer by fellow IRA sympathiser, Jeremy Corbyn.

McDonnell quoted Chairman Mao in his response to George Osborne's spending review before tossing a copy of Mao's little red book to him. Mao was responsible for the deaths of an estimated 40-70 million Chinese citizens who were starved or worked to death from the implementation of his policies or put to death for standing in his way. He was responsible for more deaths than any other person in history.

John McDonnell, Gerry Adams and Jeremy Corbyn

Bookies for Bickley

With less than a week until voters go to the polls in Oldham West & Royton, the bookies are shortening odds for a UKIP win.

All but two of the online bookies tracked by the Odds Checker website are shortening odds on a UKIP victory and lengthening odds on a Labour win. Most bookies have UKIP around the 2/1 mark whilst Labour are still odds on at around 1/3.

There is no question that John Bickley can win Oldham West & Royton for UKIP. This once safe Labour seat is rapidly turning purple and while the bookies are pretty sure Labour will keep the seat, they're uncertain enough to keep UKIP's odds short in case they find themselves having to pay out.

Labour activist abused online for reporting the demise of the Labour Party in Oldham

A Labour activist in Oldham has received abuse from Labour supporters after posting his findings from canvassing in Oldham on Reddit.

Here's what they had to say, it makes interesting reading:

Hi, I have been campaigning in Oldham for the last 2 weeks and thought I'd give you an update on how things are going. I'd just like to say that all my observations are one the basis of putting aside assumptions and are fair ones. They are based solely on things I have myself heard on the doorstep.

First off. There are 11 wards and 2 of them (coldhurst and medlock) are demographically heavily populated by south east Asians. This demographic went 65% labour at the election and so whilst Ukip have engaged there, it is not where their emphasis will be.
I have been knocking on the doorsteps around Chaddeston South, the heavily leaning white working class Royton North, and the 3 way battle of the Crompton Ward.

• all 3 are labour areas in the past but there was only a near parity of labour support for this by election. worryingly, a significant minority were very unsure as to whether they could be bothered coming out next Thursday.
• The reaction Ukip have had is generally a good one. Ukip is not 'detested' within these wards even by those who say they'd never vote for them.
• Jeremy Corbyn is not popular in these wards even amongst those saying they'll vote Labour. What should concern Labour is that in Royton South (heavy labour), I have heard nothing positive over the last two weeks. The difference being that last week, there was a lot of neutrality whereas this week it was wholly negative.
• one of the striking things I regularly heard was the number of these people who have always voted labour deciding to not vote. Many of these people were not prepared to lend Ukip their vote but were certain of their abstention.
• I spoke to nobody over the last.2 weeks who voted Ukip at the GE who had since decided to change their mind or were less likely to vote at all. They were all certain to vote and stick with Ukip.
• Around half of those certain to vote Ukip in Chaddeston and Crompton were not overly positive about Farage. They thought he was posh and didn't understand their lives but was at least prepared to 'say what needed saying' and this garnered at least a modicum of respect.
• in Royton South, he was unpopular and seen as 'all the same' but the party was more popular and 'in touch with their lives. There's life after Farage, in my opinion.

RESULTS: (I do not claim that it is a representative sample).
Doors knocked: 120
Labour vote: 55
Certainty (marks out of 10) 60%
Weighted: 33
UKIP: 65
Certainty: 90%
Weighted: 59

conclusion labour have huge problems with their working class vote from what I have seen. These results were essentially reflected across the board by the 100 other campaigners over the last 2 weeks. Ukip is more popular than Farage though very few actively dislike him. But Corbyn has completely turned off his vote.

Ukip are still going to struggle because near 30% (south east Asian electorate) actively dislike Ukip And are certain to vote Labour if they come out to vote. UKIP will win comfortably in Royston South, chatteston and Crompton. The question really is, whether the south east Asian vote turns out. If they do and Ukip fail to turn 30-40% of the Tories, Ukip won't gain more than 35% and will lose. It all depends on the turnout, but in my honest opinion, at 3/1 it represents a ridiculous value for money as I'd put them both at evens. UKIP can win here, they are getting a very warm welcome and Corbyn is destroying his core vote.

Hypocritical Labour complain about UKIP's mock leaflet in Oldham

Labour have launched a hypocritical attack on UKIP for distributing a mock Labour leaflet pointing out Jeremy Corbyn's policies.

In this year's general election Labour distributed leaflets all over the country claiming UKIP wants to privatise the NHS, even distributing them to students at a Keele University election event and in Northumberland they distributed a letter claiming that UKIP was calling for mothers to lose state benefits. In the 2013 local elections the Conservatives distributed a fake UKIP leaflet in Lancashire and Labour were doing it in the South Shields by-election.

Trade union sockpuppets, Hope not Hate, have put a considerable amount of effort into publishing fake social media content and defamatory and inflammatory material about UKIP candidates to try and prop up the Labour Party.

The Labour MP for Denton & Reddish, Andrew Gwynne, has accused UKIP of "trying to take Oldham backwards to the days of division" and says that the leaflet would only heighten fears of racial tension. Oldham saw a series of race riots in 2001 after white communities retaliated to a growing number of racist attacks from asian gangs and the violence escalated. Gwynne is claiming that highlighting Jeremy Corbyn's policies of uncontrolled immigration, abolishing the armed forces, abolishing the monarchy and ceding the Falklands to Argentina - all of which are his policies - will result in a return of race riots and suggests the timing is inappropriate because of the terrorist attacks in Paris last week.

Its hard to decide what's most pathetic - the breathtaking hypocrisy, the suggestion that exposing the Labour leader's policies will lead to race riots or using the Paris terrorist attacks for political point scoring.

With three weeks until voters in Oldham West & Royton go to the polls, Labour are 1/6 favourites to win with UKIP a fairly close second with odds of 7/2 and the vote splitting Conservatives a distant third place with odds of 100/1. Opinion polls in the run-up to the by-election in the neighbouring Heywood & Middleton constituency last October predicted an almost 6,000 vote majority for Labour when in reality UKIP's John Bickley fell just 617 votes short of taking what was once a Labour safe seat.

The polling companies will have revisited their weighting after that result and the party's massive 3.9m votes in the general election this year but they're not going to lose their bias toward the status quo. The result is going to be a lot closer than any of the polling companies predict and John Bickley stands a very good chance of winning Oldham West & Royton for UKIP.

John Bickley for Oldham West & Royton

So John Bickley is UKIP's man for Oldham West & Royton as expected and he's the perfect candidate.

Bickley is the son of a trade unionist and a self-made businessman who has created jobs and investment in the north of England. He came within a whisker of unseating Labour in the by-election for the neighbouring constituency of Middleton & Heywood last year and there's a very good chance he can win Oldham West & Royton for UKIP this year.

Oldham West & Royton by-election campaign starts today

UKIP's campaign for the Oldham West & Royton by-election is being kicked off this morning with a 10am press conference to unveil the party's candidate and people on doorsteps at 10:45am.

Last year UKIP's John Bickley came within 617 votes of beating Labour in the by-election for the neighbouring seat of Heywood & Middleton, narrowly missing the opportunity to deprive Labour of the seat they've held since it was created 1983. It is widely expected that Bickley will be announced as the UKIP candidate for Oldham West & Royton.

Labour increased its vote share in this year's general election by 9.3% but UKIP increased its share by an even more impressive 17.4%. The Conservatives dropped 4.7% and the Lib Dems bombed with a 15.4% decrease in vote share.

This by-election will be a two horse race between Labour and UKIP. This is a working class area that isn't going to choose a Conservative over Labour. UKIP is the only party that can command support from both sides of the political spectrum and challenge Labour's stranglehold over the north of England.

In Oldham West & Royton, if you vote Tory you'll get Labour. Vote UKIP and get UKIP.